Madagascar's President Faces Impeachment as Military Unit Defects

Strategic Insights -

Thousands of young Malagasy citizens took to the streets in the capital Antananarivo, demanding President Andry Rajoelina's resignation, while the Corps d'administration des personnels et des services administratifs et techniques (CAPSAT) unit of the armed forces stood behind the protesters. This dramatic shift in the country's political landscape has left Rajoelina's whereabouts unknown, with a military source revealing that he flew out of the country on a French military aircraft on Sunday.

Key Takeaways:

  • The CAPSAT unit, which supported Rajoelina's rise to power in 2009, has now defected and is backing the protesters, significantly tilting the balance of power against Rajoelina.
  • Opposition members of Madagascar's National Assembly will begin impeachment proceedings against President Andry Rajoelina, citing the country's constitution as their right to do so.
  • The events unfolding are eerily similar to Rajoelina's takeover in 2009, with experts noting that the balance of power is not in Rajoelina's favor due to CAPSAT's influence.
  • CAPSAT controls important aspects of the army, including personnel management, administrative support, and technical services, making it a crucial player in the country's political crisis.
  • Analysts warn that a successful coup could lead to serious repercussions, including a continuation of the cycle of weak institutions and a stronger army that intervenes for the benefit of business and political elites.

Statistics:

  • 16 years: the time since Rajoelina came into power, supported by the CAPSAT unit.
  • 2019: the year Rajoelina dissolved his government and appointed a new prime minister.
  • 75: the age of Rajoelina's predecessor, Marc Ravalomanana.
  • Thousands: the number of protesters gathered in capital Antananarivo's square on Monday.
  • 25 September 2023: the date the protests began.

Sources:

  • "Madagascar's army joins protest against President Rajoelina," DW, 25 September 2023
  • "Malagasy President Rajoelina Flees Island After Military Defects," Reuters, 25 September 2023
  • "Madagascar: Rajoelina, Macron in talks as protesters force him to flee," RFI, 26 September 2023
  • "France privately backing Madagascar's protesters against President Rajoelina," The Africa Report, 26 September 2023