Misconceptions About Political Violence in the US

Strategic Insights -

A wave of recent events has sparked concerns about rising levels of political violence in the United States. However, a closer look at the data reveals that Americans are not as willing to support violence as previously thought. In fact, most people condemn such actions. The issue lies in how questions about political violence are phrased, leading to confusion and misinterpretation.

Key Takeaways:

  • A series of recent events, including the assassination of Charlie Kirk, have sparked alarm about rising levels of political violence in the US.
  • My research suggests that response error is a substantial problem in surveys about political violence, leading to misinterpretation of the data.
  • Preliminary results from my survey, which used AI to analyze responses, suggest that only about 8% of Democrats and 2.6% of Republicans support use of force in violent terms under current conditions.
  • The concept of "response error" refers to the issue where respondents don't interpret a question in the way the researcher thinks they will, leading to inaccurate answers.
  • My survey used a technique called cognitive interviewing, where respondents were asked to clarify their thought process when answering certain questions, to reduce response error.
  • Even questions that explicitly ask about political violence are open to wide interpretation, as seen in a question about whether citizens should resort to violence to achieve political goals.
  • Only about 15% of respondents said violence could sometimes be justified, with most stating that it should be a last resort when all other peaceful and legal methods fail.

Statistics:

  • About 33% of Democrats agreed with the statement that "use of force is justified to remove President Trump from office," but most respondents interpreted this as "firing" or "forcing" the president out of office due to rules or laws.
  • The AI only coded about 8% of Democrats as supporting use of force in violent terms under current conditions.
  • About 29% of Republicans agreed that "use of the military is justified to stop protests against President Trump's agenda," but most respondents envisioned the National Guard intervening nonviolently to stop violent protests and riots.
  • Only about 2.6% of Republicans supported use of the military against nonviolent protests.
  • About 15% of respondents said violence could sometimes be justified, with most stating that it should be a last resort when all other peaceful and legal methods fail.

Sources:

1. Ryan Kennedy, "My surveys have shown that Americans almost universally condemn political violence" (The Conversation, 20XX)