Trump's Middle East Deal: A New Approach, Unclear Commitment

Strategic Insights -

The White House on Sunday sealed an agreement to end two years of devastating war in Gaza, but critics question whether US President Donald Trump is committed enough to achieve a broader agreement to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, one of the world's most intractable disputes. The deal marks a sharp change from the Oslo process, where Israeli and Palestinian negotiators met quietly with help from Norway and set up a roadmap that was eventually supposed to settle heated disputes. Trump has taken a brash approach, backing Israel despite growing international outrage over its Gaza offensive, but then pushing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after Israel attacked Hamas leaders meeting in Qatar. Critics argue that Trump's plan lacks detail and that without sustained commitment, the conflict will continue. This marks a shift from the approach of former US President Bill Clinton, who brought Israeli and Palestinian leaders together at the White House for the landmark Oslo accord, marking the beginnings of Palestinian self-governance.

Key Takeaways:

  • The agreement announced by the White House on Sunday speaks only of an eventual "credible pathway" to Palestinian statehood and has little on the West Bank.
  • Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues that Trump's approach has short-circuited any process and simply pressured and cajoled, which may be a failure of the Oslo process.
  • Other Western powers, including France and Britain, have recognized a Palestinian state, marking a break with Oslo's model of painstaking diplomacy.
  • Ghaith al-Omari, advisor to Palestinian negotiators at the time of Clinton's Camp David summit, believes none of the current leaders are capable of reaching a lasting peace deal, citing Netanyahu's mistrust and Mahmud Abbas's discrediting.
  • The plan lacks detail and lacks staff to indicate sustained diplomacy.
  • Critics question Trump's changed approach and lack of clarity on Palestinian statehood and West Bank issues, arguing that the deal may fail without sustained commitment.

Statistics:

  • 20-point plan released by the White House speaks only of an eventual "credible pathway" to Palestinian statehood.
  • Over 2 years of devastating war in Gaza.
  • Oslo process, which marked the beginnings of Palestinian self-governance, had a detailed roadmap to settle heated disputes.
  • 90: the age Mahmud Abbas will turn next month.
  • Under $100 million: the US aid committed annually to the Palestinian Authority.
  • $143 billion: the annual military aid for Israel.

Sources:

  • Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
  • Ghaith al-Omari, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
  • White House announcement on the 20-point plan.
  • The Washington Institute for Near East Policy report on the Middle East conflict.
  • The Center for Strategic and International Studies report on the Middle East peace process.