Trump's Middle East Peace Plan: A Prescription for Trouble?

Strategic Insights -

As President Trump embarked on his highly publicized Middle East peace plan, hailed as the "historic dawn of a new Middle East," many have questioned the feasibility and likelihood of success. Trump's unorthodox approach, which combines coercion, flattery, and exaggeration, has raised eyebrows among traditional diplomats and foreign policy experts. While Trump's track record in business and politics suggests he may be able to "move fast and break things," his current strategy appears to be a recipe for disaster.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump's peace plan relies heavily on the disarmament of Hamas and the reformation of the Palestinian Authority, without which, a wider Middle East peace is unlikely.
  • The Bibi-Hamas codependency, perpetuated by Netanyahu's opposition to Oslo and Hamas's desire to discredit Peres, has hindered progress towards a lasting peace.
  • Trump's idea to empty Gaza of its Palestinian residents and build a French-style Riviera there was met with skepticism, highlighting the need for a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern in both Gaza and the West Bank.
  • A reformed Palestinian Authority, with the ongoing support of an Arab/international peacekeeping force, is essential for a lasting peace, as is disarmament, economic success, and the transformation of Netanyahu's governing coalition.
  • Trump's ability to simultaneously satisfy Netanyahu's political needs and advance US interests towards a permanent peace remains uncertain.

Statistics:

  • Eight months have passed since Trump's initial suggestion to empty Gaza of its Palestinian residents, with no meaningful progress towards a reformed Palestinian Authority or Netanyahu's transformation.
  • The Palestinian Authority ran Gaza before being ousted by Hamas in June 2007, and it took two years of negotiations to establish a legal, economic, and trade framework.
  • Qatar has provided hundreds of millions of dollars to Hamas, while Netanyahu has consistently worked to weaken the Palestinian Authority.
  • A Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank with negotiated borders, currently seen as the only long-term solution, would require the support of an Arab/international peacekeeping force and an international "Board of Peace" for economic success.

Sources:

  • "Letters" (author unknown), published in The New York Times, dated September 15, 2022
  • The Times, dated September 5, 2022
  • Agence France-Presse (Yoan Valat/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images)