Madagascar Plunges into Uncertainty as Military Seizes Power

Strategic Insights -

Protests against the government have been raging in the Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar, culminating in a military takeover that has left the country's future in doubt. The crisis began when the Army Personnel Administration Center (CAPSAT) announced it had suspended the constitution and seized power, following parliament's decision to impeach President Andry Rajoelina. The presidency condemned the move, describing it as an 'illegal declaration' and an 'attempted coup d'etat'. The military has taken control of the government, with its officers assuming collective leadership and promising a two-year transition period leading to a referendum on a new constitution.

Key Takeaways:

  • The crisis in Madagascar began in mid-September 2025, following widespread protests against the government, sparked by power outages, water shortages, and alleged corruption.
  • The protests escalated on September 25, 2025, with thousands taking to the streets in the capital Antananarivo, despite a government ban. Demonstrations continued for several days, met with tear gas and rubber bullets, resulting in 22 reported deaths and over 100 injuries, according to the UN.
  • President Andry Rajoelina dissolved his energy minister and the parliament in the face of mounting unrest, but this failed to quell the protests, which continued demanding Rajoelina's resignation and the dissolution of key institutions.
  • On October 11, 2025, troops from CAPSAT declared support for the protests, and the following day installed Gen. Demosthene Pikulas as their new military chief. Rajoelina was reported to have been evacuated to France, citing an 'attempt on his life'.
  • Rajoelina dissolved parliament on October 14, 2025, citing the need to 'restore order' and 'make way for the youth'.
  • Madagascar's recent unrest reflects years of deepening socioeconomic strain, including power outages affecting 36% of the population, water shortages, and chronic corruption.
  • The World Bank, IMF, and the African Development Bank have cited mismanagement at the state utility Jirama and prolonged droughts as key causes of Madagascar's economic challenges.
  • Jirama's debt stands at about 2.37 trillion Malagasy ariary ($529 million), equal to 7.6% of GDP.
  • Between 75% and 80% of Malagasy live below the $2.15-a-day poverty line, while youth unemployment exceeds 30% in urban areas.

Statistics:

  • 36% of the population in Madagascar has access to electricity.
  • Rural coverage of electricity is as low as 7-12%.
  • Daily power outages in cities like Antananarivo last 6-12 hours.
  • 70% of southern residents lack access to basic drinking water.
  • Jirama's debt stands at about 2.37 trillion Malagasy ariary ($529 million), equal to 7.6% of GDP.
  • 20% of water is lost due to aging infrastructure.
  • 30% of youth in urban areas are unemployed.
  • Inflation is around 7-8%.
  • Poverty in secondary cities has risen from 46% to 61% in the past decade.

Sources:

  • The Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar has been thrust into political upheaval, as youth-led protests against the government have been followed by a military takeover that now defines the country's uncertain future. (Source: UN News)
  • The crisis reached a turning point when the Army Personnel Administration Center (CAPSAT) announced it had suspended the constitution and seized power, soon after parliament voted to impeach President Andry Rajoelina. (Source: Reuters)
  • The presidency condemned what it called CAPSAT's 'illegal declaration' to suspend the constitution, describing the unit as 'a faction of military rebels' and calling its presence in the palace 'a manifest act of attempted coup d'etat and a serious violation of republican legality.' (Source: Madagascar's presidency)
  • The military said the presidency would be collectively assumed by its officers during a two-year transition leading to a referendum on a new constitution. (Source: CAPSAT)
  • Five institutions, including the High Constitutional Court, the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Senate, the High Council for the Defense of Human Rights, and the High Court of Justice, were suspended, while the National Assembly remained in place. (Source: CAPSAT)
  • The African Union condemned Rajoelina's 2009 rise to power as a coup, while he sought legitimacy through a fragile power-sharing deal later that year. (Source: African Union)