Soybean Geopolitics Threatens Brazil's Largest Tropical Savanna

Strategic Insights -

Brazil's biggest soybean producers are lobbying to roll back deforestation restrictions, which could accelerate the clearance of the Cerrado, a vast tropical savanna and forest corridor critical to regulating rainfall patterns and temperatures in Brazil.

Brazil's soybean production has accelerated in recent years, with the country surpassing the United States as the world's leading soybean producer in 2017. The increased demand for soybeans comes primarily from China, which has all but stopped buying soybeans from the United States in response to the ongoing trade dispute. This has created a significant opportunity for Brazilian farmers to expand their soybean production, potentially at the expense of the Amazon rainforest.

The Soy Moratorium, an industry pact designed to limit deforestation in the Amazon, has been a key mechanism in reducing deforestation in the region. However, with pressure mounting to suspend the moratorium, Brazilian soy producers are pushing to increase their production, which could lead to increased deforestation in the Cerrado, a region that is home to nearly half of Brazil's native vegetation.

Key Takeaways:

  • Brazil's soybean production has increased steadily over the past few decades, with the country surpassing the United States as the world's leading soybean producer in 2017.
  • China's ongoing trade dispute with the United States has created a significant opportunity for Brazilian farmers to expand their soybean production, potentially at the expense of the Amazon rainforest.
  • The Soy Moratorium, an industry pact designed to limit deforestation in the Amazon, has been a key mechanism in reducing deforestation in the region.
  • Pressure is mounting to suspend the Soy Moratorium, which could lead to increased deforestation in the Cerrado, a region that is home to nearly half of Brazil's native vegetation.
  • The Cerrado is a critical ecosystem for regulating rainfall patterns and temperatures in Brazil, losing nearly half of its native vegetation due to deforestation and cattle grazing.
  • Soy plantations cover 40 million hectares, according to MapBiomas, an independent group that uses satellite data, with most of it being in the Cerrado region.
  • In 2023, soy was harvested from more than 460,000 hectares of recently deforested land in the Cerrado, an area larger than Rhode Island.
  • The Cerrado is not part of the Amazon, but soy-related deforestation has still been a significant concern in this area.
  • The soy producers' association, Aprosoja, is leading the charge against the Soy Moratorium, claiming it is a "trade barrier disguised as environmental protection."
  • Flávia Milhorance and Claire Brown contributed reporting for this story.

Statistics:

  • 40 million hectares of land covered by soy plantations, according to MapBiomas.
  • 460,000 hectares of recently deforested land in the Cerrado used for soybean production in 2023.
  • More than $12.6 billion in soybean exports to China last year.
  • 150,000 hectares of recently deforested land in the Amazon used for soybean production in 2023.
  • Nearly half of Brazil's native vegetation has vanished due to deforestation and cattle grazing in the Cerrado.
  • Soybean exports from the United States to China have dropped to zero since the fall harvest.

Sources:

  • Brazilian Association of Soybean Producers (Aprosoja)
  • MapBiomas
  • National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
  • Greenpeace Brazil
  • Agence France-Presse