Madagascar on the Brink of Civil War: Coup Highlights Institutional Chaos

Strategic Insights -

The situation in Madagascar has become increasingly tumultuous, with Colonel Michael Randrianirina, the head of the CAPSAT (Corps pour la Protection des Institutions), announcing his intention to install himself as provisional Head of State on Friday, October 17. This move comes after President Andry Rajoelina's escape and the colonel's seizure of power, which was sparked by a mutiny by soldiers defending demonstrators. The events of the last few days have led to a period of uncertainty, with the Constitutional Court dissolved by the military, creating an institutional confusion that no one knows how to resolve. Meanwhile, the African Union has suspended Madagascar's membership with immediate effect, calling for the restoration of a civilian government and the organization of elections.

Key Takeaways:

  • The situation in Madagascar has become increasingly chaotic, with Colonel Michael Randrianirina announcing his intention to install himself as provisional Head of State on Friday, October 17.
  • The coup was sparked by a mutiny by soldiers defending demonstrators, which resulted in at least one soldier being killed and the gendarmes withdrawing from the area.
  • The population has welcomed the military's takeover of power, with the streets filled with cheering people.
  • The Constitutional Court was dissolved by the military just a few days ago, creating an institutional confusion that no one knows how to resolve.
  • Colonel Randrianirina has announced that he will be installed as President for the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar, with a platform calling for constitutional reform and the subsequent election of representatives of the new institutions.
  • The African Union has suspended Madagascar's membership with immediate effect, calling for the restoration of a civilian government and the organization of elections.
  • The probability of civil war, which was 70 percent on October 11, has now dropped to 15 percent.

Statistics:

  • At least one soldier was killed in the confrontation between soldiers and gendarmes.
  • The probability of civil war was 70 percent on October 11 and has now dropped to 15 percent.
  • The Constitutional Court was dissolved by the military just a few days ago, on October 15.

Sources:

  • Fides (October 15, 2025) - "Madagascar: Colonel Randrianirina announces his intention to install himself as provisional Head of State on Friday, October 17."
  • Fides (October 11, 2025) - "Madagascar: Pope Leo XIV leads prayer vigil for peace, and Malagasy bishops proclaim a day of prayer and fasting for the country."
  • AllAfrica (October 16, 2025) - "African Union suspends Madagascar's membership with immediate effect."