The Secret to Trump's Success in Gaza: Offering Carrots on Domestic Politics

Strategic Insights -

The cease-fire in Gaza, brokered by President Donald Trump, has been attributed to his diplomacy in persuading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to accept the deal. However, a closer look reveals that Trump's success was not due to threats or pressure, but rather offering carrots on domestic politics. Trump lavished praise on Netanyahu, extending him political protection, which led to Netanyahu agreeing to Trump's proposal.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump's success with Netanyahu was due to offering carrots on domestic politics, rather than sticks on foreign policy.
  • The Israeli government was facing internal pressure, with a far-right coalition and ongoing corruption trials, which made it difficult for Netanyahu to accept a deal without a complete Hamas surrender.
  • Trump's praise and support for Netanyahu helped to alleviate this pressure and allowed Netanyahu to agree to the cease-fire.
  • Trump's team, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, directly engaged with Israel's cabinet to promote the cease-fire deal and lavished praise on Netanyahu.
  • The price of the cease-fire will be tomorrow's turbulence, as Israel will need to exercise restraint when faced with Hamas's inevitable resistance.
  • Hamas challenged the cease-fire within 48 hours, firing close to the Israeli withdrawal line, and the U.S. military responded.
  • Mr. Trump's intervention has tied the United States to a deeply unpopular leader, Mr. Netanyahu, who has resisted accountability for his role in the catastrophe of Oct. 7.

Statistics:

  • The Israeli government's operations against Hamas have been devastating, with a severe blow to the group's ability to maneuver and resupply itself.
  • 70% of the population in Gaza lives in poverty, with 55% of children under the age of 5 suffering from chronic malnutrition.
  • The U.S. has provided $125 million in humanitarian aid to Gaza since the start of the war.
  • Hamas has challenged the cease-fire within 48 hours, firing close to the Israeli withdrawal line.
  • The U.S. military has responded to the Hamas attack, with no reported casualties.

Sources:

  • The New York Times (no specific date or author)
  • Reuters (Evelyn Hockstein)
  • Washington Institute for Near East Policy (Dana Stroul)