Putin Outmaneuvers Trump Again, Deters Sanctions and Support for Ukraine

Strategic Insights -

Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to persuade President Donald Trump to put off plans to supply Ukraine with powerful new long-range Tomahawk missiles, and instead, Trump has announced a new summit with Putin to broker a peace deal. The development has been met with skepticism by European leaders and Ukraine, who warn that Putin is not serious about a just peace deal and is using tactics to buy time. According to Kremlin sources, Putin told Trump that the Tomahawks would damage US-Russian relations, dash any chance of a peace deal, and make little difference on the battlefield.

Key Takeaways:

  • Putin has successfully deterred Trump from imposing further sanctions on Russia and providing more military support to Ukraine, using tactics of drama, delaying tactics, bluster, and flattery.
  • Putin has praised Trump's peace efforts, saying the Nobel Peace Prize was a recognition of Trump's achievements, but has also repeatedly suggested that he would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump had been president.
  • Trump has expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of the Tomahawks and has instead focused on the upcoming summit with Putin, saying that he believes Putin wants to end the war.
  • European leaders and Ukraine have warned that Putin is using a stalemate in the war to justify his continued maximalist demands, including the permanent renunciation of NATO membership and the slashing of Ukraine's military.
  • Russia's economy is taking a mounting toll from the war, with revenue falling and officials warning of the risk of recession, despite Putin's triumphalist talk of a Russian victory.

Statistics:

  • 63% of Russians want to see an end to the war, according to a July poll by the Levada Center, while 30% favor continued fighting.
  • Russia's military and security forces gobble up about 40% of Russia's budget, causing a strain on the economy.
  • Bills to strengthen US sanctions against Russia and buyers of Russian energy are being pushed forward by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut).

Sources:

  • Robyn Dixon, Byline (no publication date or timestamp provided)
  • Kremlin sources, including press secretary Dmitry Peskov and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov (no publication date or timestamp provided)
  • Levada Center (no publication date or timestamp provided)
  • Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) (no publication date or timestamp provided)