Bolivia's Rightward Shift: Implications for Coca Cultivation and US Relations

Strategic Insights -

As Bolivians go to the polls on Sunday, the country is poised to undergo a significant shift to the right, marking a departure from nearly 20 years of leftist rule under the Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) party. The first-ever presidential runoff pits centre-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira against right-wing former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, with the latter gaining ground in the polls in recent weeks. This rightward shift has the potential to drastically alter Bolivia's approach to coca cultivation, a plant that serves as the base for cocaine but is widely used in its natural state for medicinal and cultural purposes. With the Trump administration pushing a more aggressive policy in South America, including airstrikes against suspected drug-smuggling boats, the next president will face significant challenges in dealing with the US.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Bolivian election marks a significant shift to the right, with centre-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira and right-wing former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga vying for the presidency.
  • The country's left-wing Mas party, which has ruled Bolivia since Evo Morales' election in 2005, suffered its worst-ever result in the first round.
  • A key issue in the next president's dealings with the US will be coca production, with the Trump administration pushing a more aggressive policy, including airstrikes against suspected drug-smuggling boats.
  • Both candidates want strong, better relations with the US, with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, describing the election as "one of the more promising developments" in Latin America.
  • The new president will face the country's worst economic crisis in four decades, with annual inflation at 25% and a chronic shortage of US dollars and fuel.
  • The criminologist and organised crime expert Gabriela Reyes Rodas has suggested that the US may condition the resumption of loans to the new government on the DEA's return to the country.
  • Morales' expulsion of the DEA in 2008, a move that has not been reversed, has created tension with the US.

Statistics:

  • Bolivia's right-wing president Luis Arce did not run in the election, losing 3% of the vote in the first round.
  • Annual inflation in Bolivia stands at 25%, with a chronic shortage of US dollars and fuel.
  • The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has described the Bolivian election as "one of the more promising developments" in Latin America.
  • Both presidential candidates want strong, better relations with the US, with Quiroga saying that coca from the Yungas has "always been legal, ancient, and traditional" and Paz Pereira stating that coca from the Yungas was "good".
  • 112 miles is the distance between the Chapare and the government-regulated market for coca production.

Sources:

  • José Orlando Peralta, a political scientist
  • Gabriela Reyes Rodas, criminologist and organised crime expert
  • Aquilardo Caricari, secretary general of the CSCIOB
  • Martin Bernetti/AFP/Getty Images
  • The Guardian
  • The New York Times