Chronic Kidney Disease Incidence and Predictors among Hypertensive Patients in Ethiopia

Strategic Insights -

Researchers conducted a retrospective follow-up study at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Referral Hospital in Ethiopia, examining the incidence and predictors of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among hypertensive patients. The study found that hypertension was a major contributor to CKD, and identified predictors and longitudinal blood pressure patterns associated with CKD incidence. The researchers used a Bayesian joint modeling approach to evaluate the effects of time-dependent blood pressure trajectories on CKD risk and found significant associations between current and quarterly rates of change in blood pressure and increased CKD risk.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that 58/408 (14.22%) of hypertensive patients developed CKD, with an incidence density of 2.5 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.89-3.14).
  • Both current values and longitudinal quarterly rates of change in systolic blood pressure were significantly associated with increased CKD risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) of 6.25 (95% CrI: 2.85-9.85) and 3.75 (95% CrI: 3.16-7.95), respectively.
  • Similarly, the diastolic blood pressure had an AHR of 4.32 (95% CrI: 2.35-8.27) for the current values and 5.64 (95% CrI: 4.24-10.82) for the quarterly rate of change.
  • Age 65 years or older (AHR = 4.62; 95% CrI: 1.83-12.21), low HDL-C, diabetes, and proteinuria were identified as high-risk factors for CKD.
  • The researchers concluded that older patients (65 + years), low HDL-C, diabetes, and proteinuria require close monitoring and early intervention to mitigate CKD risk.

Statistics:

  • 58/408 (14.22%) of hypertensive patients developed CKD.
  • 2.5 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.89-3.14) incidence density of CKD.
  • 408 hypertensive patients were followed for 2322.83 person-years.
  • Current systolic blood pressure values had an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) of 6.25 (95% CrI: 2.85-9.85).
  • Quarterly rate of change in systolic blood pressure had an AHR of 3.75 (95% CrI: 3.16-7.95).

Sources:

  • NewsRx. Study Findings from University of Gondar Provide New Insights into Chronic Kidney Disease (Incidence and predictors of chronic kidney disease among hypertensive patients in Ethiopia: A Bayesian multivariate joint model). Hematology Week. October 20, 2025; p 685.
  • Habtamu Wagnew Abuhay, et al. Incidence and predictors of chronic kidney disease among hypertensive patients in Ethiopia: A Bayesian multivariate joint model. PLOS ONE, 2025;20(10).