Climate Change Impacts on Malaria Transmission in India

Strategic Insights -

Scientists have investigated the effects of climate change on malaria transmission dynamics in India, predicting a decrease in Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) values by up to 30% in most regions by the end of the century due to rising temperatures and rainfall. This study used the VECTRI model, a vector-borne disease community model, to simulate future malaria transmission over four major climatological zones in India, assessing the impact of climate change on malaria risk at a regional scale. The research may inform policymakers on malaria disease control programs in India and provide a basis for climate change impact assessments.

Key Takeaways:

  • The VECTRI model predicted an overall decrease in EIR values by 10 to 30% across most of India by the end of the century, driven by temperature increases of 4 to 5°C and rainfall increases of 10 to 40% compared to the baseline period (1985-2014).
  • Exceptions to this trend were observed in western and peninsular regions, where EIR values increased due to favorable climate conditions.
  • The study highlighted the importance of temperature and rainfall in controlling malaria transmission during summer and winter monsoon seasons.
  • The research emphasized the need to assess the impact of climate change on malaria risk at a regional scale to inform effective disease control programs in India.
  • The VECTRI model simulation results may provide a basis for policymakers to develop strategies for malaria prevention and control in the face of climate change.
  • The study's findings have implications for global health and medicine, particularly in regions prone to climate change and mosquito-borne diseases.

Statistics:

  • 4 to 5°C: Temperature increase predicted by the VECTRI model over most of India by the end of the century.
  • 10 to 40%: Rainfall increase predicted by the VECTRI model over most of India by the end of the century.
  • 10% to 30%: Decrease in EIR values predicted by the VECTRI model across most of India by the end of the century.
  • 2080s: End of the century, when the VECTRI model predicted significant changes in malaria transmission dynamics over India.
  • 1985-2014: Baseline period used for comparison with climate change predictions.

Sources:

  • Bal, P.K., et al. (2025). Changing climate and its impacts on the dynamics of future malaria transmission over certain endemic regions in India. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 35412.
  • Nature Portfolio. (n.d.). Heidelberger Platz 3, Berlin, 14197, Germany.
  • NewsRx LLC. (2025, October 20). Studies Conducted by Prasanta Kumar Bal et al on Malaria Recently Reported (Changing climate and its impacts on the dynamics of future malaria transmission over certain endemic regions in India). Malaria Weekly, p 38.