High-Stakes Geopolitical Game Over Russian Crude Affects Global Energy Markets

Strategic Insights -

US President Donald Trump, along with his counterparts Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi, are engaged in a high-stakes poker game over Russian crude. At stake is the global energy market, and the flow of Russian oil to India and China. Trump wants to curb these purchases, while Modi seeks to balance India's energy security and domestic price stability. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping is interested in the prospect of buying Russian crude at discounted prices. Putin's Russia has been courting Asian buyers, offering huge discounts, and India and China have become crucial lifelines for Moscow.

Key Takeaways:

  • India has emerged as one of Russia's largest oil customers, buying discounted crude that Western nations largely avoid since Russia invaded Ukraine.
  • India's purchases have helped stabilize domestic fuel prices and keep inflation in check.
  • The US under former President Joe Biden accepted India's buying of Russian oil to maintain stability in global energy markets.
  • Trump claimed that Modi assured him that India would soon stop buying Russian crude, but it remains unclear if such a promise was made.
  • China is the world's largest buyer of Russian crude, importing around 10 million barrels a day, with Russia overtaking Saudi Arabia as China's primary source of crude in 2023.
  • Moscow has offered huge discounts to offset lost Western markets, and India and China are critical to Russia's energy sales.
  • India's foreign ministry denied making a promise to Trump about halting Russian oil purchases, citing energy security and domestic price stability.
  • Russia has a long history of cooperation with India, dating back to the Cold War, including defense cooperation, technology transfers, and military hardware.
  • India values its growing relationship with Washington, particularly on trade and technology, and may be willing to scale back Russian imports in exchange for improved trade access to the US market.
  • Analysts suggest a possible scenario where India cuts back on Russian imports, creating a temporary glut of crude and depressing prices, but leaving Russia more dependent on China or clandestine buyers.

Statistics:

  • India bought 1.6 million barrels a day of Russian oil in September 2025, with a predicted increase to 1.8 million bpd in October 2025.
  • The US has tolerated India's discounted purchases to prevent global shortages, with Brent crude prices hovering between $80 and $90 a barrel in 2022, compared to around $61 in recent periods.
  • Russia earns billions from discounted crude sales, with China importing around 10 million barrels a day.
  • The majority of Russian oil shipments to India are transported via a "shadow fleet" of tankers operating outside Western insurance systems.
  • Any potential cut in Indian purchases of Russian oil will not be visible until around January 2026.

Sources:

  • "Trump, Putin and Xi play a high-stakes geopolitical game over Russian crude" by Paran Balakrishnan Modi, distributed by Contify.com, 2025.
  • Former US Ambassador to India's recent interview.
  • ABP Private Limited, 2025.