Measles Outbreaks Surge in the US, Calling into Question the Country's Elimination Status

Strategic Insights -

As the nation grapples with its worst measles outbreak in over three decades, a new outbreak along the Utah-Arizona border has sickened over 100 people, highlighting the pervasiveness of anti-vaccine sentiment and the decline in routine vaccination rates. The current outbreak is the second-largest cluster of cases in the country this year, with a majority of cases found in unvaccinated individuals. This disturbing trend comes amidst an already bleak year for public health, with the number of measles cases hitting a 34-year high.

Key Takeaways:

  • The new outbreak began in August and has sickened more than 100 people, with a majority of cases in unvaccinated individuals.
  • The outbreak is located in the Utah-Arizona border region, where vaccination rates have steeply declined since the pandemic, with only about 78% of kindergartners fully vaccinated against measles in the 2024-25 school year.
  • The current outbreak is similar to large outbreaks of the early 1990s, which were characterized by low vaccine uptake and community ties.
  • Several parallels have been drawn between the current situation and the large outbreak that exploded on the western edge of Texas in January, both of which started in rural towns with sizable populations of children who had not been immunized against measles, mumps, and rubella.
  • Experts note that most large measles outbreaks in the US have had ties to close-knit communities with low vaccine uptake, including ultra-Orthodox Jewish and Mennonite communities.
  • Local public health officials have expressed concern that the virus had spread beyond members of the polygamist group to the broader community, where vaccination rates have dropped steeply since the pandemic.
  • The decline in vaccination rates has been attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, which experts believe has made anti-vaccine sentiment "pervasive in the culture" of Southwest Utah and Arizona.
  • The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported 44 reported outbreaks of at least three cases this year, compared to just 16 outbreaks in 2024, highlighting the increasing risk of measles transmission.

Statistics:

  • Over 100 people have been sickened in the new outbreak along the Utah-Arizona border.
  • Only about 78% of kindergartners were fully vaccinated against measles in the 2024-25 school year, down from 90% in the 2019-20 school year.
  • The current outbreak is the second-largest cluster of cases in the country this year, with the Southwest outbreak topping over 880 cases across Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma.
  • 44 reported outbreaks of at least three cases have occurred this year, compared to just 16 outbreaks in 2024.
  • 44 hospitalizations and two deaths have been reported due to measles this year, the first such deaths in the country in a decade.

Sources:

  • Jonathan Corum, Justin Rex, and other unnamed sources.
  • The New York Times.
  • The Texas Tribune via Reuters.