Tropical Storm Melissa Intensifies, Threatens Category 5 Strength

Strategic Insights -

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to strengthen over the southern Caribbean Sea, fueled by exceptionally warm ocean waters, with a high chance of becoming a large and dangerous hurricane. The National Hurricane Center has issued hurricane watches for southern Haiti and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica. While there is still some uncertainty in Melissa's track, forecasters predict a significant risk of impacts in Jamaica and Cuba, with the possibility of a Category 5 hurricane by Monday.

Key Takeaways:

  • Melissa spent Wednesday as a mid-tier tropical storm with 50 mph winds, west-northwest at 2 mph, and its center located 320 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
  • The storm is traversing exceptionally warm ocean waters, in the upper 80s, but remains lopsided due to disruptive shear and dry mid-level air on the west side.
  • Melissa should spend through Friday crawling along at a snail's pace, with little change in strength, before changing its trajectory beginning Friday night.
  • The window for Melissa to swing northward and slam Haiti is closing, increasing the risk of impacts in Jamaica and Cuba.
  • There is a high chance of Melissa becoming a Category 5 hurricane by Sunday or Monday, with peak intensity predicted around Monday.
  • Melissa may undergo rapid or extreme rapid intensification into a high-end hurricane by Sunday night or Monday, fueled by extreme sea surface temperatures of 86 to 89 degrees.
  • A westward track is more likely at this point, with the storm continuing westward as it slips south of Jamaica before potentially turning north.
  • The risk to the Cayman Islands and Cuba would increase markedly from Monday, as Melissa would make landfall as a powerful hurricane early to mid next week.

Statistics:

  • Tropical Storm Melissa had winds of 50 mph on Wednesday.
  • The storm is expected to turn northwards through the weekend.
  • The National Hurricane Center issued hurricane watches for southern Haiti and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica.
  • Melissa is predicted to become a Category 5 hurricane by Sunday or Monday.
  • Peak intensity is predicted around Monday.
  • Extreme sea surface temperatures of 86 to 89 degrees in the west central Caribbean represent high-octane fuel for Melissa's intensification.
  • The storm is expected to make landfall as a powerful hurricane early to mid next week.

Sources:

  • National Hurricane Center.
  • University of Miami.
  • Hurricane-Tracking Center.