Deforestation for Coffee Cultivation Threatens Global Supplies

Strategic Insights -

Brazil's southeastern coffee belt has seen deforestation in recent years, leading to a decrease in rainfall and crop failures, according to a new report by Coffee Watch, a nonprofit industry watchdog. The report found that companies clearing forests to make way for plantations have led to reduced rainfall, lower yields, and higher prices for consumers. If the trend continues, farmers may produce fewer crops even as more forests are destroyed to accommodate more farmland.

Key Takeaways:

  • The report found that deforestation in Brazil's southeastern coffee belt has led to a 75% decrease in rainfall, which in turn has caused crop failures and lower yields.
  • Coffee production is at risk because the crop is highly sensitive to rain patterns and not very resilient to drought.
  • The report's conclusions align with findings by Brazilian scientists published in Nature Communications last month, which found that deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest had driven about 75% of the decrease in rains there.
  • Coffee Watch's report argues that clearing forests to meet demand for coffee will exacerbate rainfall patterns that are already shrinking yields for farmers.
  • Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer, but conditions in the main southeastern growing regions have degraded with deforestation, leading to a breakdown in annual rain cycles.
  • A 2014 drought in Brazil was a turning point, when rain shortages became practically annual, and since then, when rain has fallen, the timing is often misaligned with the needs of finicky coffee crops.
  • Last year, intense drought in Brazil contributed to shortages and wild spikes in global coffee prices, foreshadowing trouble ahead.
  • By 2050, extreme prices could be the norm as much of Brazil's coffee belt becomes less fruitful, according to Coffee Watch's predictions.

Statistics:

  • 2 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide every day (estimates).
  • 75% of the rain decrease in Brazil's Amazon rainforest is attributed to deforestation (studies by Brazilian scientists).
  • 75% of the decrease in rainfall in Brazil's southeastern coffee belt is attributed to deforestation (Coffee Watch's report).
  • 2014: a drought year that led to shortages and marked the beginning of annual rainfall deficits in Brazil.
  • 2023: the European Union adopted a law that would compel industry players to prove that their products do not come from recently deforested land.
  • 2050: the predicted year when extreme prices for coffee could become the norm due to Brazil's changing climate.

Sources:

  • Coffee Watch, a nonprofit industry watchdog ("The ecologically destructive way we grow coffee is going to result in us not having coffee.")
  • Nature Communications, a peer-reviewed journal (studies by Brazilian scientists).
  • European Union, the executive arm of the European Union (letters to the European Commission).
  • United Nations, host of the annual climate conference in the Amazon.