Serum b-hCG Values Predict Live Birth in IVF Cycles

Strategic Insights -

Researchers at the University of Health Sciences in Ankara, Turkiye, have made a significant discovery in clinical trial research. By analyzing serum b-hCG values, they found that these values can predict live birth in both fresh and frozen embryo transfers with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 72%. The study, published in the Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan, determined that a cut-off value of 197 IU/L can predict live birth with a high degree of accuracy.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study used a case-control design to investigate the relationship between serum b-hCG values and live birth rates in IVF cycles.
  • The researchers measured serum b-hCG values on Days 12 and 14 after transfer in patients who underwent single embryo transfer on Day 5.
  • The median b-hCG value measured on Day 12 in fresh transfers resulting in live birth was found to be 277 IU/L, while in frozen transfers it was 332 IU/L.
  • A cut-off value of 197 IU/L was found to be a strong parameter to predict live birth in all transfers, regardless of whether the transfer was fresh or frozen.
  • The study concluded that serum b-hCG values can predict live birth with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 72% at a value of 197 IU/L.
  • The research has been peer-reviewed and is expected to guide clinicians in predicting pregnancy outcomes and counseling patients.

Statistics:

  • Sensitivity of serum b-hCG values in predicting live birth: 75%
  • Specificity of serum b-hCG values in predicting live birth: 72%
  • Median b-hCG value measured on Day 12 in fresh transfers resulting in live birth: 277 IU/L
  • Median b-hCG value measured on Day 12 in frozen transfers resulting in live birth: 332 IU/L
  • Cut-off value to predict live birth in all transfers: 197 IU/L

Sources:

  • Can Serum b-hCG Values Measured after Embryo Transfer Predict Live Birth in Both Fresh and Frozen Transfers? Jcpsp-journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan, 2025;35(10):1335-1339.
  • NewsRx. New Clinical Trial Research Findings Has Been Reported by Researchers at University of Health Sciences (Can Serum b-hCG Values Measured after Embryo Transfer Predict Live Birth in Both Fresh and Frozen Transfers?). Health & Medicine Week. October 24, 2025; p 2408.