The United States' Decline and the Rise of Disorder: A New Era for the World Order

Strategic Insights -

As leaders from around the world gather in Seoul for a major economic summit, the world is bracing for a potentially unstable meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. The U.S.-China trade war, marked by sky-high tariffs and unilateral action, has upended the rules-based international economic order that America led for 80 years. The Trump administration's assault on institutions Washington designed to advance its own power and privilege has sparked concern about the future of the global order. With no natural successor and no plan for what comes next, the United States is hastening its own decline and forcing the world into a new era of disorder.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Trump administration's continued use of tariffs and unilateral action has damaged the rules-based international economic order, which America led for 80 years.
  • The administration's assault on institutions Washington designed to advance its own power and privilege has sparked concern about the future of the global order.
  • The United States' decline is not just a economic phenomenon, but also a security and stability issue, as the world becomes more disorderly and violent.
  • China's rise has been swift, but it lacks viable plans for reducing conflict, creating financial stability, and managing transnational threats like nuclear proliferation.
  • American democratic allies in Asia and Europe may yet pull together to preserve what they can of the liberal international order, but domestic resistance at home to growing defense budgets may stymie their ambitions.
  • A new international order may emerge, potentially led by a coalition of democratic countries, and driven by a shared vision for technological, economic, and security cooperation.
  • The Trump administration's actions have created a power vacuum that other countries are eager to fill, including China, which seeks a world that is safe for autocracy.
  • The world is bracing for a potentially unstable meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, with the U.S.-China trade war hanging in the balance.

Statistics:

  • The United States has levied tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods, with average tariffs of 20-30%.
  • The Trump administration's tariffs have increased the prices of goods for American consumers, with some estimates suggesting that tariffs have added $2.5 billion to the cost of American imports.
  • The number of armed conflicts worldwide has increased in recent years, with 25 major wars being fought in 2020 alone, a 25% increase from 2010.
  • The global economy is slowing, with GDP growth rates expected to decline from 3.2% in 2020 to 2.5% in 2023.
  • The number of people living in extreme poverty has increased in recent years, with 736 million people living on less than $1.90 a day in 2020, up from 670 million in 2015.

Sources:

  • Lissner, R., & Rapp-Hooper, M. (2020). An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for 21st Century Order.
  • "The U.S.-China Trade War: A Timeline" by the New York Times.
  • "The Trump Administration's Trade Policy: A Guide" by the Congressional Research Service.
  • "Global Peace Index 2020" by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
  • "Global Economic Outlook: A Report by the World Bank Group" (2020).
  • "The United Nations World Food Programme's The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World: 2020"