Alliance Party Suffers Lowest Score in Over Five Years in Latest LucidTalk Assembly Poll

Strategic Insights -

Northern Ireland's Alliance party has experienced a significant drop in support, falling to joint fifth place in the latest LucidTalk Assembly poll, its lowest score in over five years. This decline comes after the party's success at the polls, including lifting its vote share to 13.5% in the 2022 Assembly election and securing nearly 19% in the 2019 European election.

The party's support has fallen from 16% in a LucidTalk poll in October 2020 to 11% in the latest survey, with the drop attributed to vociferous criticism from the DUP and UUP since Stormont returned from its summer recess. This criticism has seen a rise in support for both parties, with the DUP up one point at 18% and the UUP in fourth spot on 12%, up one point.

The new LucidTalk poll, conducted for the Belfast Telegraph, shows Sinn Fein still the largest party in Northern Ireland on 25%, down one point from August. The party's lowest poll rating in over three years, Sinn Fein retains a comfortable lead over the DUP, which has seen a sharp shift to the right on cultural issues, culminating in a two-point rise in collective unionist support.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Alliance party has fallen to its lowest score in over five years, with support dropping from 16% in 2020 to 11% in the latest poll.
  • The party's decline is attributed to vociferous criticism from the DUP and UUP since Stormont returned from its summer recess.
  • The DUP has seen a one-point rise in support, reaching 18%, while the UUP is up one point in fourth spot on 12%.
  • Sinn Fein remains the largest party in Northern Ireland, with a rating of 25%, down one point from August.
  • The TUV remains in third spot on 13%, unchanged from the summer poll.
  • The SDLP and Alliance are joint fifth on 11%, with the Greens up one point at 4%.
  • People Before Profit and Aontu remain unchanged on 2%, while others and independents have dropped to 2%.

Statistics:

  • 2,908 people participated in the online poll from October 17 to 20.
  • The sample was scientifically weighted to reflect the Northern Ireland population.
  • Alliance's support has dropped one point from 12% in the August poll.
  • The DUP has gained one point since the previous poll.
  • The UUP has gained one point, placing them in fourth spot.

Sources:

  • LucidTalk Assembly poll (2022)
  • Belfast Telegraph (2022)
  • Alliance party spokesperson (2022)