Melissa Storm Forecast: Catastrophic Impacts Predicted for Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba
A tropical storm threatening to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane, Melissa is forecast to bring catastrophic impacts to Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba, with potentially disastrous consequences for the millions of people in these countries. The storm's slow movement means that there will be a prolonged period of heavy rainfall, with 20 to 40 inches possible in the hardest hit areas, and hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge of 5 to 10 feet accompanying the core when it finally pushes ashore. The Jamaican government has declared the whole country a threatened area under its disaster risk management act, and the nation's electric utility is preparing for potential outages.
Key Takeaways:
- The National Hurricane Center warns of a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning Saturday night, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in Jamaica and Haiti.
- Hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge of 5 to 10 feet may accompany Melissa's core when it finally pushes ashore, worst in the east of Jamaica and including the capital, Kingston.
- The storm's slow movement increases the chance of life-threatening storm surge early next week, with all preparations expected to be completed today.
- In Haiti, two people died and another one was injured in a landslide near the capital on Thursday, bringing the number of weather-related deaths to at least three since the storm began, according to the Haiti's Civil Protection Agency.
- Residents in Jamaica and Haiti are bracing for more impacts, with the Jamaican government urging patience among those waiting for power restoration.
- Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify into a near-Category 5 hurricane by Monday, with 82 percent of model runs associated with an artificial intelligence model from Google suggesting a Category 4 or 5 by early Tuesday.
- The impact may be comparable in strength and damage to Hurricane Maria's assault on Puerto Rico in 2017, with extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities expected.
- Jamaica's electric utility is preparing for potential outages, with line workers from outside Jamaica beginning to arrive to assist in restoration efforts.
- For Haiti, the storm comes at a dire moment, with the southern region still recovering from Category 4 Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and acute food insecurity affecting 5.7 million people.
Statistics:
- 20 to 40 inches possible in the hardest hit areas
- Hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge of 5 to 10 feet expected
- 82 percent of model runs associate with an artificial intelligence model from Google suggesting a Category 4 or 5 by early Tuesday
- 5.7 million people facing acute food insecurity in Haiti
- 1.3 million people displaced by gang violence in Haiti
- 2,000 people killed in Haiti earthquake in August 2021
- 600 people killed in Haiti by Hurricane Matthew in 2016
- $2.8 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Matthew in Haiti
- 49 people killed in Jamaica by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988
- 100,000 homes damaged by Hurricane Gilbert in Jamaica
Sources:
- National Hurricane Center update
- Haiti's Civil Protection Agency report
- Jamaica's disaster risk management act declaration
- Jamaican government statement
- Jamaican electric utility statement
- Google artificial intelligence model results
- Hurricane Maria's assault on Puerto Rico in 2017
- Hurricane Gilbert's impact on Jamaica in 1988
- Haiti's earthquake report in August 2021
- Haiti's Hurricane Matthew report in 2016
- Interactions between Melissa and other storms in the western North Atlantic.