Northern Ireland Voters' Preferences in the Irish Presidential Election

Strategic Insights -

According to a recent LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph, people in Northern Ireland who were able to cast a ballot in the Irish presidential election would have predominantly backed Catherine Connolly, an Independent TD, with 33% of the vote. The poll found significant support for Connolly among Sinn Fein voters, with 81% of respondents backing her. In contrast, DUP and UUP voters showed minimal support for Connolly, with only 2% of DUP voters and none from the TUV. Fine Gael's Heather Humphreys received 19% of the vote, with higher support among SDLP and UUP voters. The poll also revealed a strong distinction in voting preferences based on respondents' constitutional block, with Connolly widely preferred by nationalists and Humphreys showing higher popularity among unionists.

Key Takeaways:

  • Catherine Connolly would have received 33% of the vote in an Irish presidential election, according to a LucidTalk poll.
  • 81% of Sinn Fein voters would have backed Connolly, while 2% of DUP voters and no TUV supporters would have supported her.
  • Heather Humphreys received 19% of the vote, with higher support among SDLP and UUP voters.
  • 63% of DUP voters and 77% of TUV supporters said they wouldn't participate in voting, citing they didn't consider themselves an Irish citizen.
  • 68% of nationalist/republican respondents would have backed Connolly, while 24% of unionists would have supported Humphreys.
  • The survey found significant age-based differences in voting preferences, with Connolly performing best among those aged 35-44 and Humphreys among those aged 65 and over.

Statistics:

  • 2,908 people took part in the LucidTalk poll from October 17 to 20.
  • Response rates were scientifically weighted to reflect the current Northern Ireland population.
  • By age group, 46% of respondents aged 35-44 would have backed Connolly, while 29% of those aged 65 and over would have supported Humphreys.
  • Nearly two-thirds (63%) of DUP voters and 77% of TUV supporters said they wouldn't participate in voting.
  • Some 41% of UUP voters and 8% of Alliance voters wouldn't participate, citing they didn't consider themselves an Irish citizen.

Sources:

LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph