The Limitations of By-Elections in Predicting British Politics

Strategic Insights -

The recent by-election in Caerphilly, Wales, has sparked intense speculation about the future of Welsh and Scottish politics, with many pundits claiming that it spells doom for Reform. However, a closer examination of the data suggests that by-elections are often a poor indicator of future trends, and that the result in Caerphilly should be viewed with caution.

Key Takeaways:

  • By-elections in devolved assemblies, such as the Welsh Assembly, do not provide reliable insights into the future of national politics, as evidenced by the unpredictable outcomes of past contests, including the 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election, where Labour achieved 61% of the vote, and the 2013 Dunfermline by-election, where the SNP suffered a significant loss.
  • The claim that Reform failed to win Caerphilly due to a united front by Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and the Tories against it is unfounded, as there is no evidence of mass tactical voting, and Tom Harwood's Lilliputian-Gulliver analogy is an oversimplification of the complex electoral dynamics at play.
  • The idea that Labour can consolidate votes on the left and become competitive with Reform is just one possible scenario among many, and there are no guarantees that it will happen, especially given the unpredictable nature of public opinion and the potential for Farage's Reform to make significant gains at the next general election.
  • The Labour Party's plan to consolidate votes on the left is still untested, and it is uncertain whether mass tactical voting will occur in a general election, particularly in seats with complex electoral dynamics.
  • Reform's performance in the 2023 local elections, where they secured the highest share of the vote in the last 100 years (bar Labour and the Conservatives), is a more reliable indicator of their strength, and portends well for their future prospects.
  • The work of journalists on the ground, who report a deep-seated desire for change among Caerphilly's residents, suggests that Plaid Cymru was seen as a more viable outlet for change than Reform, which was not a major factor in the campaign.

Statistics:

  • Labour's vote share in Caerphilly dropped by 34.9 percentage points.
  • Reform's performance in the 2023 local elections was unprecedented, with the party securing the highest share of the vote in 100 years (bar Labour and the Conservatives).
  • In the 2023 local elections, Reform secured the highest share of the vote in over 90% of seats, showcasing their impressive progress.

Sources:

  • The Guardian's cartoonist, quoted in The Guardian
  • Tom Harwood, quoted in The Spectator
  • Michael Crick, quoted in GB News
  • The Spectator
  • The Guardian
  • Aaron Chown, Reform