Kenya's Political Parties Face Uncertain Future as Leaders Depart

Strategic Insights -

Kenya's political parties, with their often fragile existences, are drawing attention following the death of Raila Odinga, the long-time leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The party, which is celebrating its 20th anniversary, risks joining the ranks of other Kenyan parties that have faded into obscurity after their founding leaders left office. Unlike parties in other countries, such as Tanzania's Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) or South Africa's African National Congress (ANC), which have managed to outlive their founders, Kenya's parties tend to coalesce around personalities rather than ideologies. This has led to a culture of "transactional politics," where parties are mobilized and organized around the charisma, organizational skills, and personal attributes of their leaders.

Key Takeaways:

  • The ODM party, which is currently the most dominant in Kenya, is at risk of following the trajectory of other parties that have faded after their founding leaders departed office.
  • The party's ability to accommodate divergent views and forge unity will determine its future, with Nairobi branch chairman George Aladwa cautioning that ODM cannot be allowed to die.
  • Analysts warn that the absence of Raila's leadership may reshape realignments, test internal loyalties within ODM, and redefine the party's strategy ahead of upcoming elections.
  • The ODM party lacks substantive leaders in most positions, including party leader Oburu Odinga, who is currently operating in an acting capacity.
  • Former Attorney General Justin Muturi views Kenyan parties as "Special Purposes Vehicles" that fold up as soon as the political transaction is done, while university don Herman Manyora believes that parties in the country that belong to individuals are likely to die as soon as the owners exit.
  • Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah foresees a weakened ODM without Raila, describing him as "the institution and glue" that kept the party together.
  • Analysts caution that the absence of Raila's leadership may reshape realignments, test internal loyalties within ODM, and redefine the party's strategy ahead of upcoming elections.

Statistics:

  • Kenya has a history of parties fading after their founding leaders left office, with Ford Kenya, Kanu, NARC, Jubilee, and PNU among those that have disappeared.
  • The ODM party has been in existence for 17 years, with Raila Odinga serving as its leader since its creation in 2005.
  • The party is currently in a working relationship with the ruling UDA party, with Nairobi branch chairman George Aladwa cautioning that ODM cannot be allowed to die.
  • Kenya's longer-term political outlook has become murkier following Raila's death, with the scramble to win over his supporters intensifying in the months ahead.

Sources:

  • "The history of Kenyan politics is littered with parties that faded once their founding icons left, Ford Kenya, Kanu, NARC, Jubilee, and PNU, among others." (Political analyst Billy Mijungu)
  • "Kenyan parties lack ideology hence they don't outlive their founders either when they die or leave power." (Former Attorney General Justin Muturi)
  • "Once the owner is not there, the party will disintegrate. However, ODM is a little bit luckier since they have structures in the country to make it survive beyond Raila." (University don Herman Manyora)
  • "Raila's charisma is what propelled ODM and held it together. It's the wind that sailed the ship called ODM. In the absence of that, I am not a prophet but doing analysis it's difficult to see emergence of a replacement who is charismatic." (Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah)
  • "As at now, ODM has not filed any returns to the office of Registrar of Political Parties to formally effect the changes. So, the five top honchos are only operating in acting capacity." (Nyando MP Jared Okello)