India's Labor Mobility Movement Gains Steam Amidst Global Skills Shortage

Strategic Insights -

As the Indian government and businesses explore the possibility of exporting labor to countries with shrinking populations, the movement to connect young Indians to global workplaces is gathering pace. With tens of millions of able-bodied workers in India and nations like the United States clamping down on migration, the idea of labor mobility is gaining traction. New Delhi has signed labor mobility agreements with at least 20 countries, and a think tank estimates that India could double its current export of 700,000 workers a year to 1.5 million by 2030.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Indian government has announced a draft Overseas Mobility Bill to replace the Emigration Act of 1983, aiming to connect Indian citizens with the "global workplace" and ensure safe and orderly return and reintegration of returnees.
  • Labor mobility agreements have been signed with at least 20 countries, including Europe and Asia, with developed economies and most without much history of hiring Indian workers.
  • The Global Access to Talent From India Foundation estimates a global shortfall of 45 million to 50 million workers by 2030, making India a potential solution.
  • Arnab Bhattacharya, the chief executive of the foundation, estimates that India could double its current export of 700,000 workers a year to 1.5 million by 2030.
  • The movement faces challenges, including assuring host countries that the migration is temporary and addressing the risk of young migrant workers settling in their new lives.
  • A research paper by Chetan Ahya argues that India's economy will not create jobs fast enough to solve the crisis of underemployment, with about 50 million Indians having to return to agricultural work since the Covid-19 pandemic began.

Statistics:

  • 45-50 million workers are estimated to be needed by 2030, up from 5 million in 2023.
  • India's current export of workers is 700,000 per year, with a potential increase to 1.5 million by 2030.
  • About 50 million Indians have had to return to agricultural work since the Covid-19 pandemic began.
  • Japan and Germany are attracting the most attention within India for labor mobility, with other countries like Finland and Taiwan also signing agreements.
  • India sends $135 billion in remittances per year, and its temporarily expatriated workers will bring back capital and know-how to spur enterprise.

Sources:

  • [Boston Consulting Group study](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/workforce-outlook-for-government-and-business)
  • [Chetan Ahya's research paper](https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/india-economy-growth-skills)
  • [Global Access to Talent From India Foundation](https://www.gatifoundation.org/)
  • [Learnet Institute of Skills](https://www.learnet.in/)
  • [Furusawa Academy](https://www.furusawa.ac.jp/)
  • [Morgan Stanley report](https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/india-economy-growth-skills)
  • [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/)