Sudan's Paramilitary Forces Claim Control of El-Fasher as Darfur Conflict Escalates

Strategic Insights -

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have asserted control over El-Fasher, the last major urban center in western Darfur still outside their control. The RSF accused the Sudanese army, its longstanding adversary, of attempting to manipulate public perception through a "media disinformation campaign." This assertion comes as the RSF has intensified artillery and drone attacks on El-Fasher since August, eroding the army's defensive lines after 18 months of siege. The situation has dire humanitarian implications, with an estimated 260,000 civilians, half of them children, trapped in the city without aid or food.

Key Takeaways:

  • The RSF has taken control of the last major urban center in western Darfur, El-Fasher, claiming to have "extended control over the city from the grip of mercenaries and militias," referring to the Sudanese army.
  • The RSF has been at war with the Sudanese army since April 2023, with both sides accused of committing atrocities, including killings, sexual violence, and forced recruitment.
  • The RSF has captured the army's headquarters in El-Fasher, which it has had under siege since April 2024, and appears to have won the support of local populations, as seen in footage of crowds celebrating alongside RSF fighters in Nyala.
  • The RSF's capture of El-Fasher would mark a major turning point in Sudan's two-year war, which has killed tens of thousands and displaced nearly 12 million people, bringing all five Darfur state capitals under RSF control.
  • Analysts warn that the RSF's consolidation of power in Darfur could effectively partition Sudan, with the army holding the north, east, and center, and the RSF dominating Darfur and parts of the south.
  • Four UN agencies have warned of thousands of malnourished children at "imminent risk of death" and the collapse of health services, with reports of killings, sexual violence, and forced recruitment mounting daily.
  • International efforts to broker a ceasefire, led by the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have yielded little tangible progress, with the two sides ignoring calls for a ceasefire.

Statistics:

  • Over 12 million people have been displaced in Sudan's two-year conflict.
  • Tens of thousands have been killed, with reports of killings, sexual violence, and forced recruitment mounting daily.
  • The RSF has intensified artillery and drone attacks on El-Fasher since August, eroding the army's defensive lines after 18 months of siege.
  • An estimated 260,000 civilians, half of them children, are trapped in El-Fasher without aid or food.
  • Thousands of malnourished children are at "imminent risk of death" due to the collapse of health services, according to four UN agencies.

Sources:

  • AFP
  • The New Nation
  • UN agencies (four)
  • US's senior advisor for Arab and African affairs Massad Boulos