Tanzania's 2025 Presidential Election: A Showdown between the Ruling Party and a 'Ghost Opposition'

Strategic Insights -

Multiparty democracy in Tanzania is on the brink of collapse, with the main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, boycotting the 2025 presidential election. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is set to face off against smaller, lesser-known parties, leaving many to question the future of opposition in the country. Experts warn that the erosion of political competition has created an unpredictable and volatile situation, potentially leading to mass action and widespread discontent.

Key Takeaways:

  • For the first time since 1992, Tanzania's main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, are boycotting the presidential election due to demands for fundamental electoral reforms.
  • The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has disqualified Luhaga Mpina, the presidential candidate for ACT-Wazalendo, citing irregularities in his nomination papers.
  • Smaller registered parties exist but rarely capture more than 5% of the vote, suggesting a stark imbalance in the electoral landscape.
  • Political analysts predict that the ruling party, CCM, will use its 'unlimited powers' to maintain control and suppress opposition voices, further exacerbating the crisis.
  • Former Chadema candidate Tundu Lissu faces treason charges related to his 'No Reforms, No Election' campaign, which the government claims was intended to cause chaos.
  • Lissu and his party maintain that the electoral process remains heavily influenced by the government, fueling mass mobilization campaigns and calling for protests on election day.
  • Zanzibar, a semi-autonomous archipelago, presents a different scenario with ACT-Wazalendo, the main opposition force, campaigning for greater autonomy, anti-corruption measures, and land reform.
  • Veteran journalist Salim Said describes election campaigns in Zanzibar as peaceful, a welcome change from the history of violence associated with tightly contested results.

Statistics:

  • Since 1992, Tanzania's main opposition parties have been critical in strengthening parliamentary debates, questioning government performance, and raising alternative policy arguments.
  • In 2015, parties united under the Coalition for the People's Constitution, but this unity proved unsustainable due to rising political tensions and a restrictive electoral environment.
  • The opposition's standing has eroded due to the weakening of political competition, with smaller parties typically capturing less than 5% of the vote.
  • Tanzania's fifth president, John Magufuli, took drastic measures against the opposition in 2015, but his successor, Samia Suluhu Hassan, faces renewed opposition demands for reforms.
  • The election is set for October 29, with incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan likely to emerge as the winner.

Sources:

  • Luqman Maloto, a Dar es Salaam-based political analyst, told DW that the ruling CCM is competing against less powerful parties, with some parties unable to hold rallies.
  • Khalifa Said, founder of The Chanzo, said that the opposition's absence has ignited a national debate over its role and that the nation's founders never intended for such an outcome when restoring the multiparty system.
  • Othman Masoud, the presidential candidate for ACT-Wazalendo, is campaigning for greater autonomy for Zanzibar and fighting against corruption and land grabbing.
  • Veteran journalist Salim Said, based in Zanzibar, describes election campaigns as peaceful, a welcome change from past violence associated with tightly contested results.
  • Edited by Cai Nebe.