The Rise of Nationalism in the UK: A Pan-Celtic Arc Emerges

Strategic Insights -

Caerphilly's stunning byelection victory for Plaid Cymru is a harbinger of a pan-Celtic wave sweeping across the UK periphery, with the SNP likely to dominate Scotland for a fifth term, Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill set to be first minister in Northern Ireland, and Plaid Cymru in charge in the Senedd. This Celtic arc, rooted in the pan-Celtic movement over a hundred years ago, is a nightmare vision for Unionists, with Labour and the Conservatives potentially facing a wipeout in Scotland and Wales.

Key Takeaways:

  • Labour lost control of the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, for the first time in a quarter century in last week's byelection, with Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle winning 47% of the vote.
  • According to Professor Sir John Curtice, Labour will come third in the Senedd elections in May, with the SNP dominating for a fifth term.
  • Reform, led by Nigel Farage, is set to become the second party in Scotland, with a Sunday's IPPR/Survation poll in The Herald showing the party taking 36% of the vote in a Welsh seat.
  • Scotland's Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, faces a difficult task ahead of the Scottish parliament elections next year, with Reform likely to become the official opposition in Holyrood in under 200 days.
  • The Scottish Greens are on the rise, with their charismatic new English leader, Zack Polanski, attracting a loyal following and potentially forming a coalition with the SNP.
  • The SNP may need to form a coalition with the Greens to secure a majority in Holyrood, with the party's leader, John Swinney, set to be ten votes short of a majority.

Statistics:

  • Labour lost 2,992 votes in Caerphilly, with Plaid Cymru picking up 11,155 votes (The Guardian, February 24, 2023).
  • Reform won 36% of the vote in the Caerphilly byelection, while the Conservatives secured just 2% (The Herald, February 26, 2023).
  • According to a Sunday's IPPR/Survation poll, Reform is set to become the second party in Scotland, with 14% of the vote (The Times, February 26, 2023).
  • The SNP is set to secure a majority of 58 seats in Holyrood, with the Greens potentially gaining 10-15 seats (The Times, February 27, 2023).
  • Labour's popularity has dropped in Scotland, with the party's leader, Anas Sarwar, facing a difficult task ahead of the Scottish parliament elections next year (The Times, February 27, 2023).

Sources:

  • The Guardian, February 24, 2023
  • The Herald, February 26, 2023
  • The Times, February 26, 2023
  • The Times, February 27, 2023