Cameroon's Biya Secures Another Term, but with a Reduced Mandate

Strategic Insights -

Paul Biya, 92-year-old President of Cameroon, has secured another term in office with a reduced majority of 53.66% of the vote, his lowest since 1992. This election sees Biya's share of the vote fall by about 20 percentage points from his previous win in 2018. Despite Biya's victory, the opposition, led by 76-year-old Tchiroma Bakary, made significant gains, with Bakary securing over 35% of the vote, the second-highest ever score by an opposition candidate since Biya's presidency began in 1982. The election has been met with protests and a crackdown, resulting in casualties, and has sparked concerns about Cameroon's future under Biya's leadership.

Key Takeaways:

  • The opposition, led by Tchiroma Bakary, made significant gains in the election, securing over 35% of the vote, the second-highest ever score by an opposition candidate since Biya's presidency began in 1982.
  • Biya's share of the vote fell by about 20 percentage points from his previous win in 2018, and his reduced majority of 53.66% makes it essential for him to reassert his legitimacy both domestically and internationally.
  • The election has been marred by protests and a crackdown, resulting in casualties, and has sparked concerns about Cameroon's future under Biya's leadership.
  • The opposition's failure to present a united front and field a single candidate led to a divided vote, ultimately benefiting Biya's campaign.
  • Biya's victory comes with a reduced mandate, which may lead to a generational shift in leadership after the Biya era, with many of the senior officers' fate intertwined with Biya's.
  • Cameroon is at a critical juncture, with 92-year-old Biya starring at a potential palace coup, particularly with the regional security threats in play.
  • Biya's re-election has highlighted the perennial challenges of systemic corruption, service delivery, poverty, and slow growth, which persist, making it crucial for his regime to address the plight of young Cameroonians and women.
  • The World Bank data indicates that about 40% of Cameroonians live below the poverty line, and urban unemployment is running at 35%.

Statistics:

  • Paul Biya has been in power since 1982.
  • Tchiroma Bakary won over 35% of the vote.
  • Biya's reduced majority in the 2025 election was 53.66%.
  • Biya's previous win in 2018 saw him secure 71.28% of the vote, while Maurice Kamto secured 14.23%.
  • The opposition's combined vote share was 11%.
  • Cameroon's poverty rate is around 40%, with urban unemployment running at 35%.
  • 51% of young Cameroonians have considered emigrating, according to a 2024 Afrobarometer survey.
  • Cameroon's population is still no more wealthy than in 1986, with the average citizen facing the same economic challenges.

Sources:

  • David E Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Nottingham
  • World Bank data
  • Afrobarometer survey 2024
  • David E Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Nottingham (Credit to The Conversation Africa and AllAfrica Global Media)