China's Leader Seeks to Weaken US Support for Taiwan

Strategic Insights -

China's leader, Xi Jinping, wants to reduce American support for Taiwan, but first, he needs to know President Trump's stance on the island. Xi Jinping will likely ask Trump to clarify his position on Taiwan, particularly the US stance on Taiwan's independence, during their meeting in South Korea. Beijing has long accused Washington of encouraging Taiwan toward independence. Taiwan relies on American support, and any ambiguous language from the US could be used by China to set the terms for future talks.

Key Takeaways:

  • Chinese officials and analysts believe Xi Jinping wants Trump to state that the United States does not support Taiwan independence, echoing previous US administrations' stance.
  • China has accused the US of encouraging Taiwan toward independence, and any language diluting US support could be used by Beijing to set the terms for future discussions.
  • Taiwan's foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, downplayed concerns about what Trump might say about Taiwan when meeting Xi Jinping, saying the US and Taiwan are in close communication.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed the idea that Trump would make concessions on Taiwan in exchange for favorable treatment from China on trade issues.
  • Since Trump took office, his administration has scaled back some dealings with Taiwan, including stopping over President Lai Ching-te's visit in New York and downgrading talks between Taiwanese and US defense officials.
  • China thinks US policy on Taiwan will evolve in its favor due to the shift in the balance of power that advantages China.
  • Trump has complained that Taiwan spends too little on its military and unfairly dominates semiconductor production, while boasting about the US military's strength.

Statistics:

  • Taiwan has promised to spend more than 3 percent of its economic output on defense by next year.
  • Trump and his officials have said that number should reach 5 or even 10 percent.
  • The US is the strongest military power in the world, stated by Trump during a news conference.

Sources:

  • "Dave Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, co-wrote an assessment of how Taiwan may figure in talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi"
  • "Amanda Hsiao, a director for China at the Eurasia Group"
  • "Edward Wong and Erica L. Green contributed reporting"
  • "The Financial Times reported"
  • "Rorry Daniels, the managing director of Asia Society Policy Institute"