Fragile Ceasefire Holds in Gaza, But Next Escalation Looms

Strategic Insights -

In a state of flux, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza appears fragile and durable, with a tendency to collapse and revive in an instant. The US-brokered agreement, which took effect on October 10, has so far managed to contain the violence, with both sides announcing their commitment to the deal despite recent escalations. However, the situation remains precarious, with both sides cautioning that the ceasefire is not a linear journey and may experience "ups and downs" and "twists and turns."

Key Takeaways:

  • The ceasefire has been fragile, with the first major violation occurring on October 19, leading to a short but intense escalation that killed over 100 Palestinians and several Israeli soldiers.
  • Despite the violence, both Israel and Hamas have announced their commitment to the deal, with Israel pulling back to the yellow line demarcating the first withdrawal position inside Gaza.
  • However, the second phase of the agreement, which requires a more complete withdrawal and an end to the war, is proving to be more challenging, with Israeli forces occupying more than half of Gaza's territory, including isolated Hamas cells trapped in tunnels.
  • According to Muhammad Shehada, a Gaza expert, these isolated cells are "catastrophes in the making," with limited resources and no connection to Hamas' remaining leadership, making them more likely to engage in combat with Israeli soldiers.
  • Despite the challenges, the US has sent a parade of top officials to monitor the ceasefire and begin creating the mechanisms needed for the next phase, including humanitarian aid and the reconstruction of Gaza.
  • To break the pattern of a ceasefire marred by violent escalations and prevent the emerging new normal, major progress is needed on some of the 20-point plan's most difficult conditions, including the disarmament of Hamas and creating new governance in Gaza.

Statistics:

  • Over 200 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire started, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the vast majority during two days of escalation on October 19 and 28.
  • Three Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza during the same period.
  • More than half of Gaza's territory is still occupied by Israeli forces, including isolated Hamas cells trapped in tunnels.
  • The US has committed to keeping the process moving forward, even if progress is incremental, with a determination to keep the ceasefire holding and advance the next phase of the agreement.
  • The ceasefire has been in effect for approximately 20 days, with repeated escalations and de-escalations.

Sources:

  • CNN, October 19
  • Israel Hayom, October 20
  • European Council on Foreign Relations, October 22
  • Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, October 26
  • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, October 25
  • Vice President JD Vance, October 28