The Rise of Strongman Rule: A Threat to Global Stability and Security

As the world awaits the summit meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, the outlook for a lasting framework trade agreement and restored stability between the two nations appears bleak. The increasing presence of strongman leaders in the global arena, unbound by domestic or institutional constraints, threatens to shake the foundations of international relations and global security. These leaders, exemplified by Trump and Xi, as well as other notorious figures like Putin and Kim Jong-un, are poised to reshape the world in their image, marked by risk-taking, volatility, and an increased likelihood of conflict.

Key Takeaways:

• Strongman leaders, unencumbered by checks and balances, are more likely to engage in risk-taking behavior, potential conflicts, and miscalculations.
• Trump and Xi, both strongmen, have demonstrated a willingness to disregard agreements and change course on a whim, eroding trust among international partners.
• Strongmen often disregard accountability, leading to a lack of credibility in their threats, making it challenging for counterparts to assess their red lines.
• Research suggests that authoritarian leaders, shielded by yes men and advisors, are more inclined to engage in conflicts, escalate tensions, and prioritize personal interests over cooperative agreements.
• Strongman rule can lead to economic instability, suppressing private investment, neglecting public goods, and concentrating wealth among elites.
• In the context of the US-China trade war, disruption and slowed economic growth are predicted, as strongmen prioritize personal gain and loyalist enrichment.
• Repression, fabrication of fears, and targeted suppression of independent institutions and dissenting voices are common features of strongman rule.
• The consequences of strongman rule can be far-reaching, challenging the integrity of democratic institutions, and undermining the rule of law.

Statistics:

• $1 billion: estimated assets amassed by Xi's family in the name of regime stability within China.
• 15%: the proportion of U.S. to global GDP in 2022, reflecting the growing disparities in wealth distribution (Source: World Bank).
• 50%: the percentage increase in cryptocurrency deals involving Trump's family during his second term in office (Source: International Business Times).
• Over 1,000: the number of journalists, human rights lawyers, and activists imprisoned, silenced, or forced into exile by Xi's regime (Source: Amnesty International).

Sources:

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• American Prospect