Latino Voters in New Jersey: A Crucial Swing Bloc in the 2025 Governor's Election

Strategic Insights -

Latino voters are a critical swing bloc in the 2025 governor's election in New Jersey, where President Trump's historic gains in 2024 are being tested. Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is counting on mirroring Trump's success in diverse areas, but faces challenges in matching his own past strength in whiter and more educated towns. The outcome of this election will provide a crucial temperature check on the durability of Trump's gains among Hispanic voters and whether any other Republican can lure them into the party.

Key Takeaways:

  • Latino voters are a critical swing bloc in the 2025 New Jersey governor's election, with over 2 million people of Hispanic descent and 500,000 Puerto Ricans in the state.
  • Every single one of New Jersey's 29 townships with a majority Hispanic population swung in Mr. Trump's direction between 2020 and 2024, by an average of 25 percentage points.
  • Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli has secured President Trump's endorsement and has invested significantly in outreach to Latino voters, including participating in sponsored by Univision and being endorsed by a coalition of over 100 Latino pastors and ministers.
  • Ms. Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, has also made significant efforts to reach out to Latino voters, spending roughly $4 million on Spanish-language advertising and campaigning aggressively in Hispanic communities.
  • The density of Latino voters in some New Jersey municipalities, such as Union City, which is over 80 percent Hispanic, makes it a uniquely appealing place to measure movement in the community.
  • Passaic County, which is New Jersey's most Hispanic, is one of more than 1,400 counties nationwide that trended toward the Republican Party in 2024.
  • Republicans are bullish that Mr. Ciattarelli can hold onto Mr. Trump's gains and that the Latino community can become a backbone of the Republican Party.
  • There are already signs of softening support for Mr. Trump among Hispanic voters, with a October showing that the share of Hispanic adults who have a favorable view of Mr. Trump has dropped since he took office in January.
  • Hispanic Americans consistently show high levels of economic stress, with 65 percent of Hispanic adults saying the cost of groceries was a strain, compared with 54 percent of U.S. adults overall.
  • Ms. Campos-Medina, a leading Latino activist in the state, said that Mr. Trump's failure to address the cost of living has made him vulnerable among Hispanic voters.

Statistics:

  • 2 million people of Hispanic descent live in New Jersey.
  • 500,000 Puerto Ricans live in New Jersey.
  • Every single one of New Jersey's 29 townships with a majority Hispanic population swung in Mr. Trump's direction between 2020 and 2024, by an average of 25 percentage points.
  • 18 percent of the Hispanic share of the population in the 40 most competitive House seats is 18 percent, compared with 13 percent nationwide.
  • 12 of the most competitive seats have at least a 20 percent Latino population.
  • Mr. Ciattarelli has secured President Trump's endorsement and has avoided virtually any criticism, giving the president an 'A' grade.
  • $4 million has been spent on Spanish-language advertising by Ms. Sherrill's super PAC allies.
  • 12 of the most competitive seats have at least a 20 percent Latino population, though the figure would shift somewhat if California voters approve remapping the state.

Sources:

  • "New Jersey ends up being the first meaningful temperature check since the last election," said Carlos Odio, a Democratic pollster. (Source: Carlos Odio, Democratic pollster)
  • "His gains are not permanent," Patricia Campos-Medina, a leading Latino activist in the state and the vice chair of the Sherrill campaign. (Source: Patricia Campos-Medina, leading Latino activist)
  • In the same A.P. survey, 65 percent of Hispanic adults said the cost of groceries was a strain, compared with 54 percent of U.S. adults overall. (Source: A.P. survey)
  • Passaic County, which is New Jersey's most Hispanic, is one of more than 1,400 counties nationwide that trended toward the Republican Party in 2024. (Source: AP news article 2024 election results)
  • Republicans are bullish that Mr. Ciattarelli can hold onto Mr. Trump's gains and that the Latino community can become a backbone of the Republican Party. (Source: Peter Murphy, chairman of the Passaic County Republican Party)