ALS Prevalence Projected to Rise Significantly by 2040

Strategic Insights -

Research conducted by the University of Turin has projected that Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) prevalence will increase by a median of 24.9% across multiple countries worldwide by 2040. If a new drug could provide a 6-month increase in survival starting in 2025, disease prevalence would rise by 37.8% by 2040. The study used data from 3294 patients to determine that ALS survival increased by 0.06 years annually from 2005 to 2019 in Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta.

Key Takeaways:

  • ALS prevalence is projected to reach 15.72 per 100,000 population by 2040 in the area of Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta.
  • The increase in ALS prevalence is attributed to both population aging and increased survival rates.
  • The study used data from 3294 patients to estimate trends in incidence and prevalence from 2005 to 2019.
  • The researchers also provided a web interface for users to model different data and assumptions.
  • The study concluded that careful planning and allocation of public health resources are needed to address the projected increase in ALS prevalence.
  • The United States contributed significantly to the ALS research funding, with the ALS Association providing financial support.

Statistics:

  • ALS survival increased by 0.06 years annually from 2005 to 2019 in Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta.
  • ALS prevalence is projected to increase by a median of 24.9% across multiple countries worldwide by 2040.
  • If a new drug could provide a 6-month increase in survival starting in 2025, disease prevalence would rise by 37.8% by 2040.
  • The prevalence rate for each year was estimated as the product of the projected incidence and the projected survival.
  • The researchers estimated survival for fifteen countries by dividing prevalence by incidence, based on available data.

Sources:

  • NewsRx. Findings from University of Turin Broadens Understanding of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Prevalence Projection in 2040: A Less Rare Disease). Health & Medicine Week. October 31, 2025; p 1467.
  • Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Prevalence Projection in 2040: A Less Rare Disease. Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology, 2025.
  • University of Turin's ALS Center.