Gerrymandering on Steroids: The Future of Congressional Redistricting

Strategic Insights -

In the absence of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, extreme partisan gerrymandering could become a reality, potentially leading to the most egregious distortions of the electoral map in history. This provision, despite its limitations, has been the key federal constraint on partisan gerrymandering, particularly in large, diverse states. The Supreme Court's potential decision to strike down Section 2 would mean that, from a federal perspective, any congressional district is fair game for gerrymandering, without the need for consideration of minority populations. The outcome would be a constitutional redistricting free-for-all, with states like Texas and California potentially able to redraw their maps to ensure Republican dominance in the former and Democratic dominance in the latter.

Key Takeaways:

  • Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has effectively put a ceiling on partisan gerrymandering in large, diverse states, even if it hasn't merely been a limit on gerrymandering.
  • A Supreme Court decision to strike down Section 2 could enable states like Texas and California to draw their maps in a way that ensures one-party dominance in the House of Representatives.
  • In Texas, a 38-0 Republican map could legitimize through the redistricting process, and in California, a 52-0 Democratic map is possible.
  • Without Section 2, gerrymanders could legally break up majority-minority districts to reduce their political influence.
  • In a state like Texas, it might be possible to draw districts that vote Trump +14 or +19 on average, which would be a significant shift from the current electoral landscape in the state.
  • The absence of Section 2 could also lead to a significant decrease in the number of swing districts, making the House of Representatives even less representative.
  • This could also have implications for the election results in California and Texas depending on how districts are gerrymandered after the court decision.

Statistics:

  • There are 38 congressional districts in Texas.
  • In 2020, all 38 districts in Texas voted for Donald Trump.
  • In 2024, all 38 districts in Texas voted for Donald Trump by at least 10 points.
  • There are 52 congressional districts in California.
  • In 2024, all 52 districts in California voted for Joe Biden by at least 15 points.
  • Trump received at least 10 points in the required districts in Texas in 2024
  • Biden received at least 15 points in every California district in 2024
  • Texas Republicans could draw a 35-3 map if they think Trump +14 is too vulnerable.

Sources:

  • "The New York Times" article, no date mentioned.
  • "The Downballot" website, no date mentioned.
  • "Dave’s Redistricting" website, no date mentioned.