Trump's Venezuela Buildup Sparks Fears of Coup Similar to Chile's 1973 Death of Allende

Strategic Insights -

The Trump administration's relentless military buildup targeting Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's autocratic socialist leader, is reviving memories of past Latin American coups, including the 1973 death of Chile's democratically elected president, Salvador Allende. Washington's actions have sparked fears that Maduro's life may be at risk, with some analysts warning that any attempt to snatch him will likely result in his death. The CIA is believed to have supplied the weapons used to kill Trujillo, and the agency is also thought to have made at least eight unsuccessful attempts to assassinate Fidel Castro, the leader of Cuba's communist regime.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Trump administration has doubled its $25m reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro, making it a "dead or alive" proposition for anyone attempting to snatch him.
  • The Venezuelan leader has survived at least one apparent attempt on his life, when two drones exploded as he was speaking at a military parade in Caracas in 2018.
  • The Trump administration has deployed a daunting array of military hardware off the Venezuelan coast, including the USS Gerald Ford, the biggest aircraft carrier in the US Navy, with destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-1 and B-52 bombers, and special forces helicopters.
  • At least 57 people have been killed in more than a dozen US military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and Pacific.
  • Maduro denies Washington's accusations of being at the head of a cartel smuggling drugs into the US, and experts dispute the significance of Venezuela's role in the illegal drug trade.
  • Former CIA analyst Fulton Armstrong argued that Trump's policy could prove fatal for Maduro, saying, "Anybody who's going to try to take him is going to be so heavily armed that any defense he puts up would lead to them pulling triggers."
  • A US agent tried to bribe Maduro's pilot into diverting his plane to enable American authorities to capture him, but was unsuccessful.
  • The Trump administration's preferred course is to goad Maduro's opponents in the Venezuelan military and other parts of society to topple him in a coup, setting the scene for a democratic transition.
  • However, some analysts believe such a scenario would probably spawn a replacement loyal to the leftist movement spearheaded by Maduro's late predecessor, Hugo Chávez.

Statistics:

  • At least 57 people have been killed in more than a dozen US military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and Pacific.
  • The US Navy has deployed over 50 warships, including the USS Gerald Ford, off the Venezuelan coast.
  • The Trump administration has offered a $50m bounty for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro.
  • Venezuela's role in the illegal drug trade is disputed, with experts arguing that the country's influence is overstated.

Sources:

  • The Miami Herald
  • The Associated Press
  • The New York Times
  • The Washington Post
  • A former CIA analyst, Fulton Armstrong
  • A former CIA officer, speaking on condition of anonymity
  • John Ratcliffe, the CIA director