US Squeeze on Venezuela Won't Bring About Rapid Collapse of Maduro, Analyst Warns

Strategic Insights -

A growing U.S. military buildup along Venezuela's borders has sparked concerns that President Nicolás Maduro's regime may be on the verge of collapse. However, experts warn that the Venezuelan leader has taken substantial measures to fortify his government and is unlikely to fall without a prolonged and potentially messy conflict.

Maduro has mobilized his military and deployed troops across 284 battlefronts, as well as 25,000 soldiers near Colombia, a likely point of entry for U.S. forces. Additionally, he has massed 4.5 million members of the National Bolivarian Militia, an auxiliary force created in 2005. Civilians are being trained in weapons handling and tactics, with the intention of knitting local "people's defense" committees into the defense architecture.

The Venezuelan leader has also received significant international support, with Russia supplying 5,000 Igla-S missiles and Iran providing drone technology. Cuba has embedded intelligence and internal security advisers within the Venezuelan military, providing a significant force multiplier.

Washington has responded to the situation by surging its military presence in the Caribbean, with precision strikes against suspected drug vessels a likely escalation point. However, experts warn that direct military action may embolden Maduro's hard-liners, entrench the regime's control over the population, and create a humanitarian crisis.

Key Takeaways:

  • Maduro has mobilized his military and deployed troops across 284 battlefronts, with 25,000 soldiers near Colombia.
  • The Venezuelan leader has massed 4.5 million members of the National Bolivarian Militia, an auxiliary force created in 2005.
  • Civilians are being trained in weapons handling and tactics, with the intention of knitting local "people's defense" committees into the defense architecture.
  • Russia is supplying 5,000 Igla-S missiles to Venezuela, as well as drone technology provided by Iran.
  • Cuba has embedded intelligence and internal security advisers within the Venezuelan military.
  • Washington has surged its military presence in the Caribbean, with precision strikes against suspected drug vessels a likely escalation point.
  • Direct military action may embolden Maduro's hard-liners, entrench the regime's control over the population, and create a humanitarian crisis.
  • A prolonged and potentially messy conflict is likely if Washington pursues regime change in Venezuela.

Statistics:

  • 284 battlefronts are being deployed by Maduro's military
  • 25,000 soldiers are massed near Colombia
  • 4.5 million members of the National Bolivarian Militia have been mobilized
  • 5,000 Igla-S missiles are being supplied by Russia to Venezuela
  • 7.9 million migrants and refugees have left Venezuela, with over 6.7 million residing in Latin American and Caribbean countries

Sources:

  • The Conversation -- Global Perspectives -- By Robert Muggah, Richard von WeizsÈñcker Fellow na Bosch Academy e Co-fundador, Instituto Igarapé; Princeton University
  • AFP via Getty Images
  • The Conversation -- US squeeze on Venezuela won't bring about rapid collapse of Maduro -- in fact, it might boomerang on Washington
  • Reuters
  • BBC News