Carpal Tunnel Syndrome Surgery Trends Projected Through 2040

Strategic Insights -

Research from Mayo Clinic has revealed significant changes in carpal tunnel release (CTR) procedures in the United States. By 2040, outpatient endoscopic carpal tunnel release (ECTR) is projected to increase by 110.31% compared to 2019, while outpatient open carpal tunnel release (OCTR) is expected to decline by 20.31%. The study analyzed procedural data from 2010 to 2019 and used predictive models to forecast future utilization trends.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study projects that outpatient ECTR will grow to 65,072 cases by 2040, with an annual growth rate of 3.79%.
  • Inpatient ECTR is projected to reach 181 cases by 2040, with an annual growth rate of 2.13%.
  • Outpatient OCTR is expected to decline to 77,834 cases by 2040, with an annual decrease of 1.19%.
  • Inpatient OCTR is projected to decline to 962 cases by 2040, with an annual decrease of 1.48%.
  • The adoption of endoscopic techniques is anticipated to rise across all care settings, while open procedures are expected to continue declining.
  • Strategic planning in surgical training, healthcare infrastructure, and reimbursement models will be critical to meet changing demands.
  • Further research is needed to validate these projections in broader populations and across diverse healthcare systems.
  • The study has been peer-reviewed and published in the Annals of Plastic Surgery journal.

Statistics:

  • In 2019, there were 31,190 outpatient ECTR, 155 inpatient ECTR, 101,334 outpatient OCTR, and 1359 inpatient OCTR procedures.
  • By 2040, outpatient ECTR is projected to increase by 110.31% compared to 2019.
  • Outpatient OCTR is expected to decline by 20.31% by 2040.
  • The study used the PearlDiver Mariner all-payer claims database to analyze procedural data from 2010 to 2019.
  • The ARIMA model was selected as the best predictive model, with a normalized root mean square error of 0.012.

Sources:

  • Forecasting Trends in Inpatient and Outpatient Utilization of Open and Endoscopic Carpal Tunnel Release Procedures Through 2040. Annals of Plastic Surgery, 2025.
  • Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Two Commerce Sq, 2001 Market St, Philadelphia, PA 19103, USA (journals.lww.com/annalsplasticsurgery/pages/default.aspx)