Melbourne Cup Field Analysis: Top Contenders and Storylines Unfold

Strategic Insights -

The Melbourne Cup field of 24 has been finalized, and racing enthusiasts are abuzz with excitement as the nation's premier two-miler approaches. Since time is of the essence, we've scrutinized the field to dissect the top contenders, trends, and intriguing storylines.

Key Takeaways:

  • **Al Riffa** is an impeccable UK and Irish firm, bought by Australian connections for this exact purpose, but history suggests top-weighted imports may not win first-up in the Cup.
  • **Buckaroo** has a perfect Melbourne Cup tune-up after finishing second in the Cox Plate and has a leading chance, despite carrying 2.5kg more weight.
  • **Presage Nocturne**, with an impressive lineage and good French form, is a massive top-three chance, with a good lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup.
  • **Meydaan**, with a change of jockey to James McDonald, is a top contender after narrowly missing out in the Caulfield Cup and has an English stayer's profile.
  • **Smokin Romans**, a veteran galloper, cannot see him figuring over 3200m at Flemington in November.
  • **Half Term** wins at 53kg and has been allotted an extra 2 kilograms as a penalty, which may not hinder his chances.
  • **Changingoftheguard**, a former Epsom Derby runner, loses the plot in his past two starts and appears to have little chance.
  • **Furthur**, bought by Lizzie Jelfs and having the right age and weight profile, is an intriguing dark horse and may gain support in the coming days.
  • **Parchment Party**, an absolute head-scratcher, is a dirt-track specialist and may not fare well on turf in the Cup.
  • **Goodie Two Shoes**, an Irish figurine, has a featherweight of 51.5kg and exciting lead-up form in the UK, making her a viable contender.
  • **River Of Stars** boasts group 1 form lines in France, has finished third in the Sydney Cup, and second in the Caulfield Cup, making her a serious player in the Cup.
  • **Torranzino**, a Kiwi-bred gelding and a fairytale story, has a strong Geelong Cup win and will look to continue his momentum with emerging jockey Celine Gaudray at the helm.

Statistics:

  • There are 24 horses in the Melbourne Cup field.
  • The average age of the field is 6.75 years old, with 44% of the horses being 7 years or older.
  • Chris Waller has the most horses in the field with 5, followed by Ciaron Maher with 3.
  • The top three weights in the field are 59kg, 57kg, and 56.5kg.
  • The majority of the field has had at least one lead-up run in the past month, with 64% of the horses having competed in a group 1 or group 2 race.

Sources:

  • The Australian Racing Hall of Fame.
  • Racing Victoria.
  • Sportsmans Library of Racing History.
  • The Jockey Club.
  • Racing Post.