South Korea Caught in the Middle of US-China Superpower Rivalry

Strategic Insights -

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung this week rolled out the red carpet for both Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump, but the superpower rivalry is making it increasingly difficult for the country to balance its relations. China's leader called on South Korea to deepen cooperation with Beijing, but South Korea's attempts to strengthen its alliance with the US under President Trump have complicated efforts to improve economic ties. The rivalry has made it challenging for South Korea to manage its competing needs, with the country now transitioning from a balancing actor to a fully embedded partner within the US framework.

Key Takeaways:

  • The submarine deal between South Korea and the US, allowing South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines, marks a significant shift in its relations with the US, making it a fully embedded partner within the US framework.
  • South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung has vowed to improve ties with China, but his attempts to strengthen the alliance with the US have complicated efforts to improve economic ties with China.
  • China's leader Xi Jinping has urged South Korea to reject American-led efforts to suppress trade with Beijing and uphold the multilateral trading system.
  • The trade truce between the US and China, agreed upon by President Trump and Xi Jinping, has been met with skepticism, with experts warning of the challenges in building consensus on international institutional reform and free trade efforts.
  • South Korea has agreed to invest $350 billion in the US, including in its shipbuilding industry, in exchange for the Trump administration agreeing to lower tariffs on its goods to 15 percent from 25 percent.
  • The country's relations with China have soured over the last decade after South Korea decided to let the US deploy an antimissile system on its soil.
  • China has expressed its discomfort with the submarine agreement and the massive investment pledge in the US, warning that the move would undermine regional peace and stability.
  • The APEC summit highlighted the deep divide between the US and China, with Mr. Xi warning nations against joining the US in reducing the world's reliance on Chinese supply chains.
  • South Korea's president Lee Jae Myung has emphasized the importance of trade ties with China, which he said had helped South Korea become a global economic powerhouse.

Statistics:

  • South Korea has agreed to invest $350 billion in the US, including in its shipbuilding industry, in exchange for the Trump administration agreeing to lower tariffs on its goods to 15 percent from 25 percent.
  • The US is to allow South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines, a move that will further integrate the country into Washington's security architecture.
  • A decade of difficult relations between South Korea and China has followed the deployment of an antimissile system on South Korean soil.

Sources:

  • Seong-Hyon Lee, a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.--China Relations
  • Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul
  • David Pierson, contributed reporting from Gyeongju
  • Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry