Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Prioritizes Security Pact and Nuclear Deal with US Over Recognizing Israel

Strategic Insights -

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the United States in November will focus on securing a mutual defense pact and access to advanced American fighter jets, rather than normalizing ties with Israel as President Trump had hoped. Analysts say that establishing relations with Israel is a distant goal for the prince, who has more pressing priorities, including addressing public opinion in Saudi Arabia. The prince views normalization as predicated on Israel's taking an "irrevocable, major step toward a Palestinian state," according to Saudi commentator Ali Shihabi.

Key Takeaways:

  • Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's upcoming visit to the United States will focus on securing a mutual defense pact and access to advanced American fighter jets, rather than normalizing ties with Israel.
  • Analysts say that establishing relations with Israel is a distant goal for the prince, who has more pressing priorities, including addressing public opinion in Saudi Arabia.
  • The prince views normalization as predicated on Israel's taking an "irrevocable, major step toward a Palestinian state," according to Saudi commentator Ali Shihabi.
  • Public opinion in Saudi Arabia remains strongly opposed to ties with Israel, with a poll conducted in late 2023 showing that 71% of Saudis were against normalization.
  • The crown prince's visit will also focus on securing a nuclear deal that would give Saudi Arabia access to American technology to develop a civilian nuclear program.
  • Saudi officials have been eager to move forward with a potential deal that would give the country access to American technology to develop a civilian nuclear program.
  • The Biden administration was in talks with Prince Mohammed on both the defense pact and nuclear deal, but insisted that Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel in exchange.
  • Those conversations stalled after the war began in Gaza and public outrage at Israel swept through the Middle East.
  • Prince Mohammed has not been back to the United States since his extravagant three-week tour in 2018, after which he faced international opprobrium for the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Statistics:

  • 71% of Saudis were against normalization with Israel, according to a poll conducted in late 2023 (Source: [1] Ali Shihabi, Saudi commentator).
  • Saudi Arabia wants to secure a nuclear deal that would give the country access to American technology to develop a civilian nuclear program.
  • The crown prince's annual investment summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia attracted 10,000 attendees, including bankers, officials, executives, and entrepreneurs.
  • The conference included roughly a dozen panel discussions about artificial intelligence.
  • Saudi officials spoke about the prince's megaprojects and new strategy for the kingdom's enormous sovereign wealth fund.
  • The Abraham Accords, a 2020 deal in which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain established ties with Israel, was mentioned only briefly by Dina Powell, a former deputy national security adviser to President Trump.

Sources:

  • [1] Ali Shihabi, Saudi commentator
  • [2] "Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Plans First US Trip in 7 Years", by Vivian Nereim, The New York Times, October 2024.
  • [3] "Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Annual Investment Summit", Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 2024.
  • [4] "The Abraham Accords", a 2020 deal in which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain established ties with Israel, by Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project director at the International Crisis Group.