Robust Data-driven Surrogate Models Enhance Energy Flexibility in District Heating Systems

Strategic Insights -

A study conducted at the University of Wollongong in Australia has made significant progress in optimizing energy systems by introducing robust data-driven surrogate models. The research, published in the journal Energy, focused on incorporating phase change material (PCM) tanks into district heating (DH) systems to enhance energy flexibility. The study demonstrated that an integrated strategy, which considers both spot price fluctuations and peak demand, can significantly improve the performance of DH systems.

Key Takeaways:

  • The research introduced a robust data-driven surrogate model to enhance the performance of a district heating system integrated with a data center and a PCM thermal storage system.
  • The study used various operational strategies for PCM tank charging and discharging to generate diverse datasets for training the surrogate models and identifying the most robust model.
  • Long short-term memory networks were employed to develop the models, following careful input-output selection.
  • A new operational strategy was proposed, focusing on peak shaving and load shifting, using the best-performing surrogate model to optimize tank operation.
  • The study concluded that the tailored strategy achieved an 11.5% reduction in peak demand, a 0.3% decrease in price-responsive heating costs, and a 6.1% reduction in total operational costs compared with the daily time-based strategy.

Statistics:

  • The proposed operational strategy achieved an 11.5% reduction in peak demand.
  • The tailored strategy led to a 0.3% decrease in price-responsive heating costs.
  • The study resulted in a 6.1% reduction in total operational costs.

Sources:

  • Development of a Robust Data-driven Surrogate Model To Improve Energy Flexibility of an Integrated District Heating System With a Thermal Storage System. Energy, 2025;336. (Elsevier - www.elsevier.com; Energy - www.journals.elsevier.com/energy/, Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England).
  • NewsRx. New Information Technology Study Findings Have Been Reported by Investigators at University of Wollongong (Development of a Robust Data-driven Surrogate Model To Improve Energy Flexibility of an Integrated District Heating System With a Thermal ...). Information Technology Newsweekly. November 4, 2025; p 458.