2027 Presidential Election: APC's Calculations and Kwankwaso's Role

Strategic Insights -

Ahead of the 2027 general election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is engaged in delicate calculations to determine the party's presidential ticket. The party's strategy appears to be centered around the North-West geo-political zone, which delivered the highest number of votes for President Bola Tinubu in the 2023 elections. The zone, comprising seven states, including Kaduna, Katsina, and Kano, is considered a crucial region for the party's chances in the next election.

Key Takeaways:

  • The APC's calculations are focused on containing the growing influence of the North-West, where Vice President Kashim Shettima hails from, by shopping for a formidable Vice Presidential candidate from the same region.
  • Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), is being considered as a potential replacement for Shettima on the APC ticket.
  • Kwankwaso has been playing his cards close to his chest, neither confirming nor denying any talks with President Tinubu or the APC.
  • The NNPP is currently factionalized, with Kwankwaso remaining expelled from the party.
  • The APC National Chairman has recently reversed his stance on Kwankwaso's re-admission into the party, saying APC is ready to admit the NNPP presidential candidate without conditions.
  • The party's National Convention is expected to take place in 2026, where President Tinubu will choose his running mate.
  • An Islamic human rights group, the Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC), has warned President Tinubu and the APC against picking another running mate ahead of the 2027 general election, saying it's an ill-advised move.

Statistics:

  • The North-West geo-political zone delivered the highest number of votes for President Tinubu in the 2023 elections, with 2,652,824 votes.
  • Tinubu led Atiku Abubakar in the zone, with 2,652,824 votes compared to Atiku's 2,197,824 votes.
  • Kano State, where Kwankwaso hails from, played a significant role in Tinubu's victory in the North-West, with the President polling 517,341 votes compared to Kwankwaso's 997,279 votes.
  • The NNPP's factionalization has created a power vacuum, with Kwankwaso's presidential ambitions hanging in the balance.

Sources:

  • THEWILL Newspaper, June 8, 2025, "APC Fiasco: Non-endorsement of Shettima, Tinubu for 2027 Presidential Election"
  • THEWILL Newspaper, June 19, 2025, "National Coalition Group Unveils All Democratic Alliance, ADA"
  • THEWILL Newspaper, June 20, 2025, "Kwankwaso, NNPP and the APC: The Intrigue Continues"
  • Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC), "Warning to President Tinubu and the APC on 2027 Presidential Election"