Accelerating Decline in Cigarette Smoking Prevalence Among Adolescents

Strategic Insights -

A new study by the University of Michigan and Georgetown University has found that cigarette and smokeless tobacco prevalence declined more rapidly between 2012 and 2019 than in previous periods, despite an increase in e-cigarettes among adolescents. The analysis used data from the Monitoring the Future survey and showed that daily smoking prevalence among 12th graders fell to about 2% by 2019, an "astoundingly low rate." The results suggest that the increase in e-cigarette use has not yet reversed the declining trends of cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use.

Key Takeaways:

  • The decline in cigarette smoking prevalence among adolescents accelerated between 2012 and 2019, with a 17% annual rate of decline.
  • Daily smoking prevalence among 12th graders fell to about 2% by 2019, an "astoundingly low rate."
  • Smokeless tobacco use showed more variability through 2012, followed by consistent declines in the last five years.
  • The analysis found that cigarette smoking declined across grades, races, and sexes, suggesting a general pattern of decreased use.
  • The researchers identified change of trend years for U.S. secondary and high schools, confirming a reversal of the previous increase in daily smoking prevalence among 12th-grade boys.
  • David Levy, of Georgetown University's Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, noted that the goal from a public health perspective should be to keep smoking at this rate or lower.

Statistics:

  • Daily smoking prevalence among 12th graders fell from 4.9% in 1991 to 2% by 2019.
  • The annual rate of decline in daily smoking prevalence among 12th graders was 17% between 2012 and 2019.
  • Smokeless tobacco use declined at a consistent 5.5% annual rate between 2012 and 2019.
  • Cigarette smoking prevalence decreased by 80% among 12th graders between 1991 and 2019.

Sources:

  • JAMA Netw Open - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.27465?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=120220