Antarctic Research in Decline: A Threat to the Planet

Strategic Insights -

The Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting concluded in Milan, Italy, with decisions being made about the continent's future, heavily reliant on scientific research evidence. However, our new report shows that the rate of research on the Antarctic and Southern Ocean is falling at a critical time when it should be increasing. Moreover, research leadership is shifting, with China taking the lead for the first time, indicating a disinvestment in Antarctic research. This comes at a time when the continent is rapidly warming, contributing to sea level rise, impacting wildlife habitats, and altering ocean currents.

Key Takeaways:

  • The number of Antarctic and Southern Ocean publications peaked in 2021 and then fell slightly yearly through to 2024, according to our analysis of the Scopus database.
  • China overtook the United States as the leader in Antarctic research in 2022, with China also taking the lead in high-quality publications (those published in the best 25% of journals) in 2024.
  • All except China have declined in publication numbers since 2016, among the top six countries in overall publications (China, the US, the UK, Australia, Germany, and Russia).
  • Despite higher collaboration rates in Antarctic research compared to non-Antarctic fields, Russia, India, and China have anomalously low rates of co-authorship.
  • The decline in Antarctic research investment poses a significant threat to understanding the region's global impact, despite increasing recognition of the importance of research in shaping decisions about the continent's future.
  • The Australian parliament emphasized the need for funding certainty, while UK and US commentators have highlighted the inadequacy of research efforts in relation to sea level rise and icebreaker infrastructure, respectively.
  • China's growing influence in Antarctic research and environmental protection could have significant implications for the continent's future.

Statistics:

  • 58 countries are parties to the Antarctic Treaty, among which 29 are consultative parties that can make binding decisions about the region.
  • 12 original signatories from 1959 and 17 more recent signatory nations produce substantial scientific research relating to Antarctica, earning them consultative party status.
  • Between 2016 and 2024, the number of Antarctic and Southern Ocean publications peaked in 2021 and then fell slightly yearly through to 2024.
  • China overtook the United States as the leader in Antarctic research in 2022, with 843 publications compared to the US's 461.
  • The top six countries in overall publications (China, the US, the UK, Australia, Germany, and Russia) all except China have declined in publication numbers since 2016.

Sources:

  • The Conversation (Au and NZ)
  • Scopus database
  • The University of the Arctic
  • The European Polar Board
  • The Arctic Centre at Umeå University
  • Hurtigruten Expeditions
  • The Australian Research Council
  • The Dutch Research Council
  • The Council on Australian and Latin American Relations DFAT
  • The UArctic Thematic Network on Research Analytics and Bibliometrics