Aon's 2005 Terrorism Map: Hotspots and Risks

Strategic Insights -

Aon's updated terrorism map for 2005 identifies Iraq, Israel/Palestine, India, Nepal, and Russia as the top five locations for terrorist incidents. The map ranks 40 countries by terrorist incidents and rates countries for their level of terrorist risk by five levels: low, guarded, elevated, high, and severe. Countries participating in the Iraq coalition, such as Australia, South Korea, and Poland, have seen increased terrorist activity in 2004.

Key Takeaways:

  • Iraq, Israel/Palestine, India, Nepal, and Russia are the top five locations for terrorist incidents, according to Aon's 2005 terrorism map.
  • 31 countries have seen their terrorism risk ratings increase, with almost half of them being in Western Europe.
  • The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, and Denmark have been marked as higher risk due to increased Islamic extremist activity, with the murder of filmmaker Theo Van Gogh in November 2004 being a recent example.
  • Participation in the Iraq coalition has increased the terrorism risk to some countries, including Australia, South Korea, Poland, and Denmark, which saw more terrorist activity in 2004.
  • Groups of Al-Qaida operatives are coming into Iraq from other countries, doing short tours of duty, then returning home to recruit new members.
  • Countries without a major Al-Qaida network, such as India, can also be dangerous due to a large number of often domestic terrorist attacks.
  • The United States' ranking of "elevated" remained unchanged from last year, with 27 terrorist incidents from February 2004 to February 2005.
  • Fears of Islamic extremist attacks impacting the United Kingdom's general election on May 5 have impacted that country's rating of "elevated."
  • Renewal of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) is uncertain in Congress and is due to sunset at the end of 2005 if not renewed.

Statistics:

  • 31 countries have seen their terrorism risk ratings increase.
  • Almost half of the countries with increased risk ratings are in Western Europe.
  • 40 countries are ranked by Aon for terrorist incidents.
  • 5 levels are used to rate countries for their level of terrorist risk: low, guarded, elevated, high, and severe.
  • 27 terrorist incidents occurred in the United States from February 2004 to February 2005.
  • 80% to 90% of insurers are excluding or sublimiting terrorism acts that take place without TRIA in insurance contracts that stretch beyond TRIA's expiration.

Sources:

  • A.M. Best via COMTEX
  • COMTEX (http://www.comtexnews.com)
  • Aon Corp.
  • Risk and Insurance Management Society Inc. (RIMS)
  • Aon Risk Services, property syndication
  • Aaron F. Davis, vice president of Aon Risk Services, property syndication
  • Meg Green, A.M. Best Company, Inc.
  • Paul Bassett, executive director in Aon's crisis-management division