Arafat's Dilemma: Weighing a Flawed Peace Deal Against Repercussions

Strategic Insights -

Arafat is confronted with one of the most painful choices of his career: a comprehensive peace deal or a familiar role as a victim. The Clinton administration's proposals, which have been met with skepticism by some, offer sovereignty over Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem and a Palestinian state in exchange for relinquishing the right of refugees to return to Israel. The White House and other regional leaders have urged Arafat to accept the deal, but he is hesitant, knowing that his people may reject it and that he may face repercussions from extremist groups and within his own authority.

Key Takeaways:

  • Arafat faces a difficult decision: accepting a flawed peace deal that could lead to conflict within his own authority and with extremist groups, or rejecting it and potentially facing a hawkish Sharon government that may lead to more Jewish settlements and bloodshed.
  • The Clinton proposals offer sovereignty over Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem and a Palestinian state, but also include provisions that would restrict the return of Palestinian refugees and allow Israel to maintain control over major settlement blocks.
  • Arafat's popularity has eroded over the last five years, partly due to corruption and a failed economy, and he could face opposition from within his own authority if he accepts a deal that is seen as flawed.
  • Negotiators for Arafat have complained about the need for 26 "clarifications" before accepting the Clinton proposal, but it is unclear whether these can be resolved.
  • Arab diplomats have expressed support for the Clinton proposals, but have raised questions about how the Palestinian state would be contiguous and how the neighborhoods of East Jerusalem would be linked.

Statistics:

  • The Palestinian Authority has been in power for 5 years, during which time Arafat's popularity has eroded.
  • The Arab League has expressed support for the Clinton proposals, but also raised many questions about their implementation.
  • Arafat may face opposition from as many as 50% of the Israeli Parliament if the deal is rejected or seen as flawed.
  • 26 "clarifications" are reportedly needed before Arafat can seriously consider accepting the Clinton proposal.
  • Israel has a population of approximately 5.9 million people, with a strong majority supporting hawkish policies.

Sources:

  • "The New York Times"
  • Rashidi Khalidi, professor of Middle East history at the University of Chicago
  • Arab diplomat, sources citation
  • Clinton administration officials, sources citation