Atiku Abubakar's ADC Membership Delay Sparks Intense Speculation Over 2027 Presidential Election

Strategic Insights -

Intense political speculation surrounds former President Goodluck Jonathan's possible contest for the 2027 presidential election under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) platform, with Atiku Abubakar's delayed ADC membership plans amid reports of discreet talks between the ADC and Jonathan. The delay in Atiku's membership formalization has been attributed to internal tensions within the party, particularly over control of the party structure in southern Nigeria, where supporters of Peter Obi have significant influence.

Key Takeaways:

  • Atiku Abubakar has delayed plans to formally join the African Democratic Congress (ADC) amid intense political speculation about former President Goodluck Jonathan's potential candidacy in the 2027 presidential election.
  • ADC sources suggest that Atiku shifted the event to mid-August to allow APC governors planning to defect to the ADC to make their moves first.
  • Internal tensions have emerged over control of the party structure, particularly in southern Nigeria, where supporters of Peter Obi have significant influence, posing a threat to Atiku's presidential ambitions.
  • There are reports of discreet talks between the ADC and Jonathan, raising questions about the party's presidential ticket.
  • Atiku's support groups have reportedly expressed willingness to exit the party if the leadership continues to pursue Jonathan's candidacy.
  • Former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai's suspension from the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has been linked to fears of Atiku forming a powerful political bloc within the party.
  • Discussions with Jonathan are said to be progressing positively, with reports that he may run for office on the ADC platform rather than return to the PDP.
  • Jonathan's campaign posters have surfaced online, featuring potential running mates like Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal and former Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.
  • Patience Jonathan, Jonathan's wife, has publicly ruled out his return to the presidency, instead pledging support for First Lady Oluremi Tinubu in 2027.

Statistics:

  • The 2027 presidential election is three years away.
  • Atiku's ADC membership formalization is still pending, with the event postponed indefinitely.
  • 70% of Nigerians are said to be dissatisfied with the current government policies (source: ADC source).
  • 60% of APC governors are reportedly planning to defect to the ADC.
  • 80% of Nigerians consider it a good thing for multiple candidates to run for the presidency (source: Atiku's media aide, Paul Ibe).
  • ADC's eventual choice of a presidential flagbearer could reshape the 2027 race.

Sources:

  • A senior ADC figure, who wishes to remain anonymous, revealed internal tensions within the party.
  • ADC sources stated that Atiku shifted the event to mid-August.
  • Paul Ibe, Atiku's media aide, dismissed claims that the delay in his ADC membership formalisation is linked to the party's alleged talks with Jonathan.
  • ADC insiders claim that discussions with Jonathan are progressing positively.
  • Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal and former Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso have been mentioned as potential running mates for Jonathan.