Atiku Abubakar's Repeated Politics of Opportunism and Self-Preservation

Strategic Insights -

Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice President of Nigeria, has left the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), marking the third time since 1999 that he has defected from the PDP ahead of a general election. This move is seen as a reflection of his self-preservation politics, where he prioritizes his presidential ambitions over loyalty to the party. Atiku's decision is partly driven by the PDP's current trajectory, which he believes diverges from the party's foundational principles. His resignation letter, leaked to the media, cites "irreconcilable differences" as the reason for his departure.

Key Takeaways:

  • Atiku has defected from the PDP three times since 1999, ahead of general elections, indicating a pattern of opportunistic behavior.
  • His decision to join the ADC is likely driven by the PDP's current leadership and the party's zoning of the presidency to the South in 2027.
  • Atiku's resignation letter cites "irreconcilable differences" as the reason for his departure, which many see as a euphemism for his inability to gather enough support within the PDP.
  • Atiku's media aide, Paul Ibe, attempted to justify the timing of the letter's publication by blaming rogue elements within the PDP and APC for leaking it to stir controversy and divert national attention.
  • The PDP's Deputy National Chairman, Olabode George, has urged Atiku and other leaders to remain in the party and work for its progress, warning that quitting the party for coalition politics is a disservice.
  • George emphasized that the PDP remains a strong platform, offering great opportunities for members, and where the interest of estranged party leaders can be better served.
  • Atiku's "interference" at Buhari's burial ceremonies was seen as insensitive by some, including Festus Keyamo, who faulted Atiku for presenting correspondence bearing the Nigerian coat of arms, which he is no longer entitled to use.

Statistics:

  • Atiku has a 30-year-long presidential aspiration, spanning periods from 1993 to 2027.
  • He has had three real shots at the presidency in 2007, 2019, and 2023 but came short each time.
  • 2027 might be Atiku's last attempt at the presidency, as younger members of the PDP are ready to battle for the party ticket.
  • The ADC has reportedly been formed as a special purpose vehicle for Atiku's presidential ambitions.

Sources:

  • "PDP's Godfather in Adamawa, Chief Paul Ibe, explains why Atiku left the party" (Arise TV News, July 16)
  • "Festus Keyamo Slams Atiku, Says He Shouldn't Use Nigerian Coat of Arms in Letter of Resignation" (Channels Television, July 16)
  • "I'll Not Stop Saying the Truth About Atiku - Festus Keyamo" (Channels Television, July 17)
  • "PDP can never go under - Olabode George" (TheNewsGuru, July 11)
  • "Atiku Had Intended to Leak His Letter at Buhari's Burial, But Didn't Envisage the Backlash" (Channels Television, July 16)