Australia's Summer Weather Outlook: Extreme Heat, Floods, and Bushfires Ahead

Strategic Insights -

As October marks the beginning of Australia's peak weather season, the country can expect extreme heat, floods, and bushfires to become a norm for the coming months. The weather bureau warns of abnormally high daytime temperatures, with Tasmania at the highest risk of exceeding the norm. Unusually warm overnight temperatures are also expected, with some areas likely to experience temperatures in the top 20% on record. Sea surface temperatures, which were the warmest on record in September, are expected to continue through at least until the end of summer, potentially warming further.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tasmania has a 60-70% chance of exceeding the norm in daytime temperatures.
  • Abnormally hot days and warmer-than-average nights are expected across much of the country.
  • Overnight temperatures are likely to be in the top 20% on record.
  • Sea surface temperatures, which were the warmest on record in September, are expected to continue through at least until the end of summer.
  • The East Australian Current is shifting southward, carrying warmer water and potentially increasing sea surface temperatures.
  • Climate change plays a significant role in the shift of the East Australian Current and the warming of sea surface temperatures.
  • Rainfall forecast is uncertain, with "no particular tendency towards wet or dry" across much of the country.
  • Far north Queensland has a strong chance of a wetter than average summer.
  • October to December is the peak time for severe thunderstorms, with the highest risk on the east coast of Australia.
  • The tropical cyclone season runs from 1 November to 30 April, with most years seeing at least one cyclone making landfall.
  • December to February is peak fire season, with the summer bushfire outlook not due until November.

Statistics:

  • 60-70% chance of Tasmania exceeding daytime temperature norms.
  • 57% of the country can expect abnormally hot days and warmer-than-average nights.
  • Overnight temperatures expected to be in the top 20% on record.
  • 97% of the country's sea surface temperature is expected to be warmer than average.
  • 78% of the country's sea surface temperature is expected to be above the 90th percentile.

Sources:

  • Bureau of Meteorology, Senior Climatologist Felicity Gamble.
  • University of New South Wales, Oceanographer Prof Moninya Roughan.
  • Weather Bureau, Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment.
  • GetImage, Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images.