Behind-the-Scenes Alliances in the 2000 New Hampshire Primary

Strategic Insights -

As the Republican candidates converge on Manchester, New Hampshire, for the primary election, a crucial make-or-break moment for John McCain and Steve Forbes has resulted in intriguing alliances among the five Republican contestants. A symbiotic relationship has developed between Texas Governor George W. Bush and former U.N. diplomat Alan Keyes, who placed a strong third in the Iowa caucuses. An endorsement from Keyes at a future date would not surprise top Republican Party officials, who believe it would unite party regulars and social and economic conservatives behind Bush.

Key Takeaways:

  • A significant alliance has formed between Texas Governor George W. Bush and former U.N. diplomat Alan Keyes, with Keyes' potential endorsement seen as a unifying factor for Bush among party regulars and social and economic conservatives.
  • Keyes' third-place finish in Iowa has resulted in increased cooperation between Bush and Keyes, with Bush wanting to keep Keyes in the nomination contest to sap support from Steve Forbes.
  • Gary Bauer is seen as being friendly with John McCain, with some votes from Bauer pulling away more from Bush than from McCain.
  • A New Hampshire Republican Party official noted that every vote Keyes gets is likely a vote taken away from Forbes, who has significant resources and a powerful organization in multiple states.
  • Keyes' effort to win the Republican nomination has shifted from being woefully underfinanced to being well-executed with TV spots financed by small donations.
  • The Bush-Keyes bond goes back to the Iowa caucuses, where there was no acrimony between the two, and Keyes had a well-executed, high-quality TV advertising campaign.

Statistics:

  • George W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses by the largest plurality ever.
  • Alan Keyes placed a strong and surprising third behind Steve Forbes in the Iowa caucuses.
  • A New Hampshire Republican Party official noted that every vote Keyes gets likely takes away from Forbes.
  • Steve Forbes has significant resources and a powerful organization in multiple states.
  • Keyes' effort to win the Republican nomination has shifted from being woefully underfinanced to being well-executed with TV spots financed by small donations.
  • According to a John Zogby tracking poll, Keyes was leading among very conservative voters in New Hampshire, but Bush had retaken the lead among this group.

Sources:

  • "A number of symbiotic relationships have developed here in New Hampshire," said Steve Duprey, New Hampshire Republican Party chairman.
  • "Keyes and Bush are cooperating a lot," said a New Hampshire Republican Party official with close ties to the Bush campaign.
  • Mr. Duprey said that "My sense in New Hampshire is that every vote Keyes gets probably is a vote taken away from Forbes."
  • "The Forbes people were shocked that Keyes did so well in Iowa," said Iowa Republican Party Chairman Kayne Robinson.
  • "If Forbes come in distant third or fourth, a lot of people are saying they don't care how much money Forbes has, it's time for him to get out," said Mr. Duprey.
  • "If he doesn't win decisively in New Hampshire, he's toast," Mr. Duprey said about John McCain.
  • "Keyes, fresh from his surprising third-place finish in Iowa, was ebullient until he heard about the Zogby poll," according to the article.
  • "Who does that hurt - Forbes or Bush?" Mr. Keyes asked when informed of the Zogby poll.
  • "Bush wants Keyes to stay in so that he keeps taking conservative votes from Forbes," said Anna Barbara Hantz, a lawyer and Republican loyalist.
  • Mr. Forbes is financing his nomination campaign with his own considerable wealth, and can outlast Mr. McCain, who has raised far less money than Mr. Bush.